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resistion
Since Micron, Hynix, and Samsung have established Flash business to support them ...
double-o-nothing
Samsung is already at 3x (35?) nm in DRAM, so it must be really doubling up on ...
DRAM debate: Is boom cycle over?
Mark LaPedus
8/9/2010 8:00 PM EDT
SAN JOSE, Calif. – There are mixed signals in the DRAM market right now. Some say the boom cycle is over. Some say that this boom period is just the beginning and product shortages will linger for the foreseeable future.
Others say the boom cycle will continue, but it will be somewhat limited, due to the lack of fab equipment. As reported, ASML Holding NV and Nikon Corp. are unable to keep up with huge demand for their respective 193-nm immersion lithography scanners for advanced DRAM production.
DRAM makers also failed to invest in new capital in recent cycles. As a result of this and other trends, overall DRAM bit growth projected for 2010 could come in from 2 to 4 percentage points lower than expected. This could reduce the projected annualized DRAM growth rate from 49 percent to as low as 45 percent, warned iSuppli Corp. in a new report.
What’s in store for DRAMs now and the future?
Some are pessimistic in the short term. ‘’In fact, two-thirds of current (fab capacity) plans are centered on memories. The problem is dominantly in DRAMs, where as recently as May, everyone thought the consolidation would limit over-expansion. In less than one quarter, we have gone from a window of endless shortages to excess,’’ said G. Dan Hutcheson, CEO of VLSI Research Inc., in a recent report.
Others disagreed. "We believe the DRAM cycle has a ways to go due to the enterprise upgrade cycle (these last few years, not quarters), and DRAM cycles are currently muted (more predictable supply growth and average selling price stability) unlike in the 80s and 90s," said Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates.
"DRAM players are seeing 13-15 percent bit demand growth in 3Q ‘10 and an expectation of similar quarter/quarter growth in 4Q ‘10. Some OEMs are indicating 100-plus percent bit growth in 2011, which is obviously not an indication of overall bit demand growth but rather an indication that in enterprise-centric applications (servers) the new Intel Nehalem CPU architecture requires significantly more DRAM," Mosesmann said.
"A commodity profoundly susceptible to the variable dynamics of supply and demand, DRAM is expected to ship 15.9 million 1Gbit-equivalent units in 2010, up 48.6 percent from 10.7 million units last year," added Mike Howard, senior analyst for DRAM at iSuppli.
"Most of the year’s growth is forecasted to occur in the second half of the year, with each of the final two quarters of 2010 expected to post sequential bit growth of approximately 11 percent," Howard said. "In comparison, bit growth in the first two quarters of 2010 topped out at far below the 10 percent mark. Such high levels of growth, concentrated in a six-month period, will strain the production capabilities of DRAM suppliers."
Next: Two major issues
Others say the boom cycle will continue, but it will be somewhat limited, due to the lack of fab equipment. As reported, ASML Holding NV and Nikon Corp. are unable to keep up with huge demand for their respective 193-nm immersion lithography scanners for advanced DRAM production.
DRAM makers also failed to invest in new capital in recent cycles. As a result of this and other trends, overall DRAM bit growth projected for 2010 could come in from 2 to 4 percentage points lower than expected. This could reduce the projected annualized DRAM growth rate from 49 percent to as low as 45 percent, warned iSuppli Corp. in a new report.
What’s in store for DRAMs now and the future?
Some are pessimistic in the short term. ‘’In fact, two-thirds of current (fab capacity) plans are centered on memories. The problem is dominantly in DRAMs, where as recently as May, everyone thought the consolidation would limit over-expansion. In less than one quarter, we have gone from a window of endless shortages to excess,’’ said G. Dan Hutcheson, CEO of VLSI Research Inc., in a recent report.
Others disagreed. "We believe the DRAM cycle has a ways to go due to the enterprise upgrade cycle (these last few years, not quarters), and DRAM cycles are currently muted (more predictable supply growth and average selling price stability) unlike in the 80s and 90s," said Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates.
"DRAM players are seeing 13-15 percent bit demand growth in 3Q ‘10 and an expectation of similar quarter/quarter growth in 4Q ‘10. Some OEMs are indicating 100-plus percent bit growth in 2011, which is obviously not an indication of overall bit demand growth but rather an indication that in enterprise-centric applications (servers) the new Intel Nehalem CPU architecture requires significantly more DRAM," Mosesmann said.
"A commodity profoundly susceptible to the variable dynamics of supply and demand, DRAM is expected to ship 15.9 million 1Gbit-equivalent units in 2010, up 48.6 percent from 10.7 million units last year," added Mike Howard, senior analyst for DRAM at iSuppli.
"Most of the year’s growth is forecasted to occur in the second half of the year, with each of the final two quarters of 2010 expected to post sequential bit growth of approximately 11 percent," Howard said. "In comparison, bit growth in the first two quarters of 2010 topped out at far below the 10 percent mark. Such high levels of growth, concentrated in a six-month period, will strain the production capabilities of DRAM suppliers."
Next: Two major issues
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VincePG
8/9/2010 11:55 PM EDT
It’s clear at some point DRAM lithography is going to reach a physical limit. $100M lithography equipment that is in perpetual backorder seems to suggest that limit is approaching.
Given the fact that NAND revenues are growing faster than DRAM revenues, there is a definite indication that development dollars are going to follow growth, but DRAM is the cheapest storage per byte. With improving cost effectiveness of stacking technologies, it seems DRAM should be around for a long time, particularly if power/battery is not an issue. Its the work horse memory that everyone is familiar with. Its doubtful boomcycles for DRAM are over. Its just going to be a diminishing boom, with more boomlets in other technologes occuring. On the horizon is PMC(programmable-metallization cell) though cost and production issues still plague this future technology, smart engineers always work these issues out in time, but the fundamental architectural difference may make compatible with DRAM architectures an insurmountable stumbling block for transition. DRAM has been declared dying for years, but like the Energizer Bunny it just keeps going and going. Safe bet is DRAM is here to stay for another few years.
Other interesting memory discussions:
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4205010/Phase-change-memory-rebuttal
http://www.cs.rochester.edu/~ipek/sosp09.pdf
http://www.cs.rochester.edu/~ipek/sosp09.pdf
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ex DRAMer
8/10/2010 10:23 AM EDT
VincePG,
DRAM is not the "cheapest storage per byte", but rather NAND is the lowest cost solid state memory by over an order of magnitude with the delta between NAND and DRAM cost increasing, however NAND doesn't have the speed nor endurance to replace DRAM and thus they address separate applications. In your comment you state that PMC (Programmable Metalization Cell) is on the horizon, but the references you list are all for PCM (Phase Change Memory).
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VincePG
8/12/2010 12:02 AM EDT
ExDramer, Correct. DRAM is 5 times more expensive. Shouldn't write comments at midnight after an evening out. "Do you disagree that DRAM is pretty irreplaceble right now and the foreseeable future for fast access applications that don't have power issues?
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greenpattern
8/12/2010 7:50 AM EDT
DRAM is less fragmented but more cyclical than the Flash market. I.e., Flash has lots of niches, incl. SSD, cards, embedded, etc. Even with a possible DRAM bust coming, there could be some niches (e.g., GDDR) to go into.
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ex DRAMer
8/12/2010 11:07 AM EDT
I 100% agree that DRAM is irreplaceable now and in the foreseeable future. Despite the higher cost per bit of DRAM compared to NAND – the DRAM is the larger $ market and in today’s boom the last DRAM players standing are reaping in record revenue and profits. I do speculate that in the 2012 – 2015 horizon that there is a significant opportunity for one of the emerging NVM technologies not to replace, but selectively ‘displace’ DRAM in applications placing a high value on low power and instant-on capability.
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kinnar
8/10/2010 12:03 AM EDT
It is true that the Flash ROM have got more popularity and it is getting replaced in place of hard disk drives.
But equally it will take too much efforts and developments to make the access time equivalent to Dynamic RAM.
So DRAM will be an essential in all highspeed and memory crunching environments, this means that DRAM will be havign a heavy use in the comming days, infact there is no decrease in the demand but it will increase due to the heavy memory demand of the present day operating systems.
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resistion
8/10/2010 11:34 AM EDT
Surprised by the continuing immersion backlog. Are the main lead orders preparation for double or multiple patterning?
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unknown multiplier
8/12/2010 11:37 AM EDT
The Taiwan DRAM companies are falling behind even after licensing Micron's and Elpida's technologies. Is that pathetic or what?
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mark.lapedus
8/13/2010 2:09 AM EDT
DRAM analyst Lane Mason said that 3 of the 4 major DRAM makers would survive in the long run. We've got Elpida, Micron, Hynix and Samsung. Taiwan Inc. are more or less DRAM foundry players. Who does not survive? Many say Hynix. Ideas?
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resistion
8/17/2010 8:13 AM EDT
Since Micron, Hynix, and Samsung have established Flash business to support them through DRAM downturns, Elpida appears most at risk. But this may change as Elpida starts going into Spansion's Flash.
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double-o-nothing
8/17/2010 1:14 AM EDT
Samsung is already at 3x (35?) nm in DRAM, so it must be really doubling up on those immersion scanners! Hynix and Micron not too far behind!
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