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Semico's IC forecast index takes dip
Mark LaPedus
8/24/2010 8:04 PM EDT
SAN JOSE, Calif. - There appears to be a sudden slowdown in the cell-phone, LCD, LED, PC and other product segments-a trend that impacts chip makers.
And chip inventories are on the rise. Is it a lull, a douple dip or major slowdown? One research house provided a glimpse of the current and future IC climate.
In August of 2010, the Semico IPI Index (Inflection Point Indicator) experienced its first drop since December 2009, warned Semico Researcxh Inc.
The Semico IPI Index signals changes in the direction of semiconductor sales growth one year in advance. Semico Research's growth rate for semiconductor sales already assumes a slower year in 2011 at 13 percent year-over-year growth, compared to the 31 percent growth in 2010.
The Semico IPI Index tracks 14 weighted, worldwide economic and semiconductor market factors including semiconductor sales, inventories, and printed circuit board sales.
"The IPI drop was small and one month is not a trend, so we will not be making any major changes to our forecast numbers yet," said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research, in a report. "But we will be keeping our eye on what happens to the Index next month."
''The big question is whether the foundries and memory manufacturers will be able to control spending in the first half of 2011 in order to avoid an over-capacity situation in the second half of 2011 and into 2012,'' according to Semico. ''In addition, although Semico believes electronic devices will continue to be a 'must-have' for most consumers, the volatile economic situation in both the U.S. and Europe will determine whether we wait for bargain sales or splurge on the latest iPad for holiday gift giving.''
And chip inventories are on the rise. Is it a lull, a douple dip or major slowdown? One research house provided a glimpse of the current and future IC climate.
In August of 2010, the Semico IPI Index (Inflection Point Indicator) experienced its first drop since December 2009, warned Semico Researcxh Inc.
The Semico IPI Index signals changes in the direction of semiconductor sales growth one year in advance. Semico Research's growth rate for semiconductor sales already assumes a slower year in 2011 at 13 percent year-over-year growth, compared to the 31 percent growth in 2010.
The Semico IPI Index tracks 14 weighted, worldwide economic and semiconductor market factors including semiconductor sales, inventories, and printed circuit board sales.
"The IPI drop was small and one month is not a trend, so we will not be making any major changes to our forecast numbers yet," said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research, in a report. "But we will be keeping our eye on what happens to the Index next month."
''The big question is whether the foundries and memory manufacturers will be able to control spending in the first half of 2011 in order to avoid an over-capacity situation in the second half of 2011 and into 2012,'' according to Semico. ''In addition, although Semico believes electronic devices will continue to be a 'must-have' for most consumers, the volatile economic situation in both the U.S. and Europe will determine whether we wait for bargain sales or splurge on the latest iPad for holiday gift giving.''
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