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Frank Eory
Closely related to Economics, which is the science of explaining tomorrow why ...
eewiz
Reminds me of what my friend used to say. "An analyst's job is to analyze & ...
Analyst: IC business back on track in July
Mark LaPedus
8/26/2010 4:31 PM EDT
SAN JOSE, Calif. - After a lull, the IC industry is back on track, at least according to one analyst.
June was a slow month. As reported, June's chip sales of $24.9 billion were 0.5 percent higher than May when sales were $24.8 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).
In contrast, July is warming up. ''We think the July 'benchmark' 3-month average of world chip sales will be $25.2 billion versus $24.9 billion in June, up 37 percent year-over-year, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst with Carnegie ASA.
This represents 1.2 percent growth month-over-month. Actual sales should rise 27 percent year-over-year, according to the firm.
''Handset chips should rebound after weakness in June, helped by a ramp-up of many new handset models,'' he said. ''June was hit by the crackdown on small Chinese handset makers who weren't paying taxes. Car chips should be a strong area. In smaller niches, we expect stronger sales of industrial chips used in factory automation and instrumentation.''
The tax problem hit China's Shidai Hualong and others in that nation, which impacted sales at Taiwan's MediaTek.
There were shortages of many chips in July, but they are finally easing in August, he said. The firm is keeping its 2010 chip sales growth estimate at 24 percent.
June was a slow month. As reported, June's chip sales of $24.9 billion were 0.5 percent higher than May when sales were $24.8 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).
In contrast, July is warming up. ''We think the July 'benchmark' 3-month average of world chip sales will be $25.2 billion versus $24.9 billion in June, up 37 percent year-over-year, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst with Carnegie ASA.
This represents 1.2 percent growth month-over-month. Actual sales should rise 27 percent year-over-year, according to the firm.
''Handset chips should rebound after weakness in June, helped by a ramp-up of many new handset models,'' he said. ''June was hit by the crackdown on small Chinese handset makers who weren't paying taxes. Car chips should be a strong area. In smaller niches, we expect stronger sales of industrial chips used in factory automation and instrumentation.''
The tax problem hit China's Shidai Hualong and others in that nation, which impacted sales at Taiwan's MediaTek.
There were shortages of many chips in July, but they are finally easing in August, he said. The firm is keeping its 2010 chip sales growth estimate at 24 percent.
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Cowan LRA Model
8/26/2010 9:17 PM EDT
Hi Mark - just wanted to share with you the results of last month's run of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global S/C sales regarding the model's view of July's 3MMA sales estimate which came in at $24.849 billion. This result is slightly less than Diesen's projected sales estimate of $25.2 billion you quoted. The model's forecasted actual sales estimate for July is $23.388 billion.
Details of the model's results for last month can be found at http://wp.me/p4w7N-1za.
Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst (and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecast global S/C sales)
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BalaLak
8/30/2010 4:17 AM EDT
First I read "ISuppli again raises semiconductor forecast", then came across "Intel cuts sales target on weak PC sales" and now this (all on EETimes). Am I confused or is there a clear pattern to this?
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greenpattern
8/30/2010 4:20 AM EDT
Yes, a lot of forecasts reported in media are effectively made up.
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eewiz
8/30/2010 3:51 PM EDT
Reminds me of what my friend used to say. "An analyst's job is to analyze & predict the future events and then later give explanations why the predictions werent accurate"
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Frank Eory
8/30/2010 4:23 PM EDT
Closely related to Economics, which is the science of explaining tomorrow why the predictions you made yesterday didn't come true today :)
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Cowan LRA Model
8/30/2010 10:53 AM EDT
Hi Mark - noticed that you made the minor corrections to your article that I highlighted.
Also based upon the SIA's just released July 2010 GSR (Global Sales Report) looks like Bruce Diesen's forecast was pretty much "spot on."
The just posted 3MMA (3 Month Moving Avg.) sales number for July 2010 came in at $25.243 billion compared to Bruce's forecast estimate of $25.2 billion.
By the way, employing this global S/C sales result the latest preliminary global sales forecast estimate for 2010 "kicked up" from last month's Cowan LRA Model's prediction (of $303.9 billion) to $305.7 billion which equates to a yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimate of 35.1% compared to last month's forecast of 34.3%. This uptick in monthly sales reflects the stronger sales result for July than the model forecasted last month. This is good news based upon some of the "pessimism" that has been reported over the last month by a range of companies reporting their recent quarter's financials as well as a number of industry analysts. However, one should watch next month's sales number to see which direction it takes as confirmation that the industry might be healthier than some have reported.
Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst (and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide S/C sales)
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