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Cowan LRA Model
Hi Peter - I thought I would share with you (and your readers) the Cowan LRA ...
August sees chip sales slip, says analyst
Peter Clarke
9/16/2010 6:35 AM EDT
LONDON — The three-month average of global chip sales for August is set to be $25.3 billion, compared with $25.2 billion in July, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
This would represent a 31 percent rise over August 2009, which compares to a 37 percent annual rise enjoyed in July.
Diesen interpreted this as a "sales slip" and a relaxation compensating for a stronger than trend July. He said logic and memory chips for PCs were likely the weakest area while analog chips in general were showing reducing leads times and would have been prone to destocking in August. Chips for handsets rebounded in August while sales into automotive applications were likely flat.
"We are raising our 2010 chip sales forecast from 24 percent to 25 percent, measured in dollars, since the slowdown is less than we have factored in," Diesen said in a note.
Related links and articles:
TSMC's August sales show little growth
UMC's August sales show slim growth
July 'actual' chip sales are above trendJuly Chip sales stay strong amid slowdown signs
Analyst: IC business back on track in July|
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Cowan LRA Model
9/16/2010 5:28 PM EDT
Hi Peter - I thought I would share with you (and your readers) the Cowan LRA Model's August 3MMA sales forecast estimate compared to your posting of Bruce Diesen's expectation.
The latest run of the model predicts that the 3MMA sales number for August will come in at $25.723 billion which is based upon the model's "actual" August sales prediction of $25.449 billion. This is slightly higher than Diesen's 3MMA sales forecast of $25.3 billion.
Additionally the model's latest sales forecast for the full year is projected to be $305.729 billion. This yields a sales growth forecast estimate for 2010 of 35.1% which is much stronger than Diesen's recently increased chip sales forecast of 25% for 2010 as you pointed out.
Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst (and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global chip sales)
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