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Cowan LRA Model
peter.clarke
Global averaged chip sales dip in February
Peter Clarke
4/4/2011 10:06 AM EDT
LONDON – The three-month average of worldwide sales of semiconductors was $25.19 billion for the month of February 2011, a decline of 1.1 percent from the prior month when averaged sales were $25.52 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). Sales increased by 13.6 percent from $22.19 billion in February 2010.
The sales reflect a dip in both the averaged and actual sequential February sales.
The numbers predate the Japan earthquake and tsunami and Brian Toohey, president of the SIA, said his organization is monitoring the situation for potential impacts on the supply chain.
The above numbers are based on a three-month average of the actual sales in the nominal month and the two preceding months. The SIA and the European Semiconductor Industry Association use an average to smooth out the monthly data that would otherwise show troughs at the beginning of the quarters and peaks at the end of the quarters.
Related links and articles:
January 'actual' chip sales soar above trend
Global averaged chip sales up 14% in January
Analysts: Chip ASPs to fuel two good years
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Cowan LRA Model
4/5/2011 8:04 AM EDT
Hi Peter - a careful scrutiny of the SIA's press release announcing Feb's average sales for the global semiconductor market reveals that last month's 3MMA sales number was revised downwards slightly to $25.48 billion -- not the $25.52 billion you invoked in this posting. The downward revision is (obviously) associated with a corresponding revision (downward) in last month's "actual" Jan 2011's sales number.
Mike Cowan
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peter.clarke
4/5/2011 9:18 AM EDT
Mike....
I took the $25.52 billion from the WSTS figures and that is still the figure that stands on their website as of April 5, 2011. It is also still the 3MA from WSTS actual data. I will see if WSTS revises its spreadsheet.
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Cowan LRA Model
4/5/2011 11:01 AM EDT
Peter - the WSTS has NOT (as of this posting) posted the Feb 2011 HBR on their website. The spreadsheet that you downloaded is from last month (Jan).
The $25.48 billion averaged sales number
I have invoked is gleamed from the table (and graphic) "attached" to the SIA's PR of yesterday and can be found at the following URL = http://www.sia-online.org/galleries/default-file/GSR%20Chart_February%202011.pdf. (See column with heading - Last Month)
Mike Cowan
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Cowan LRA Model
4/5/2011 11:28 AM EDT
Peter - FLASH!!!
The ESIA just released its monthly press release and the Jan 3MMA sales number they are reporting is $25.477 billion.
Details are provided at the following URL= http://www.eeca.eu/esia_press/new_sc_market=bf8229696f7a3bb4700cfddef19fa23f/.
Mike Cowan
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peter.clarke
4/5/2011 12:24 PM EDT
Mike, I see that
I think that reduces the actual sales for January to $25.372 billion and for February to $23.656 billion, but that all depends on whether WSTS also revised down sales in December 2010.
I'll wait and see the updated spreadsheet.
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Cowan LRA Model
4/5/2011 12:51 PM EDT
Hi Peter (AGAIN!).
The WSTS does NOT revise sales numbers from the previous year once the year is "wrapped up." Therefore, the WSTS's Dec 2010 HBR represents the final monthly sales numbers for 2010. Consequently, that is why I made the remark in my first comment (above) that "The downward revision is (obviously) associated with a corresponding revision (downward) in last month's 'actual' Jan 2011's sales number."
Thus employing the averaged sales numbers released by the ESIA PR (posted today)and the fact that Nov and Dec 2010's actual sales numbers "hold," Jan 2011's revised actual sales comes in at $25.372 billion (exactly as you stated in your comment immediately above) which is lower than last month's published sales of $25.506.
Mike Cowan
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