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Larry Tsai
When developing a model (linear/nonlinear)for demand forecast based on ...
kdboyce
Don't forget that iSuppli and similar research firms are in business to sell ...
MEMS market for consumer apps to explode this year
Nicolas Mokhoff
4/11/2011 5:17 PM EDT
MANHASSET, NY -- The MEMS market this year for consumer electronics and mobile handsets will grow by 157.4 percent according to a report by IHS iSuppli market research firm.
Revenue this year for new CE and mobile MEMS devices will reach $457.3 million, up by more than a factor of 2.5 from $177.6 million in 2010.
What's more, specific microlectromechanical devices such as 3-axis gyroscopes and pico projectors will generate revenue of $1.4 billion by 2014.
The market research firm projects the established MEMS segment to expand only 10.4 percent this year, compared to the triple-digit growth rate of new CE and mobile MEMS, according to Jérémie Bouchaud, director and principal analyst MEMS and sensors for IHS.
With older products like accelerometers and single- or dual-axis gyroscopes in its stable, established MEMS will continue to produce bigger revenue overall, but growth as a whole in the next three years will be confined to the range of 9 to 12 percent.
Meanwhile, expansion rates for new CE and mobile MEMS will amount to a hefty 31 to 62 percent from 2012 to 2014.
The net effect of such rapid growth is to increase the portion held by new MEMS of the total CE and mobile MEMS revenue pie. As a result, new MEMS in 2014 will account for 39.5 percent of overall revenue--a far cry from the 0.2 percent share in 2007 when the segment earned just $2.4 million. Without the revenue contribution of new MEMS, IHS believes, overall growth in the MEMS space will be dependable but merely stable at best.
Among new MEMS devices, 3-axis gyroscopes are most likely to take a star turn. Found in the likes of the iPhone 4 from Apple Inc. and the Move remote controller for the PlayStation 3 from Sony Corp., 3-axis gyroscopes feature prominently in applications for smart phones and gaming, with motion recognition functions benefiting greatly from the use of the new MEMS component.
Three-axis gyroscopes also can be found in other consumer electronic devices, such as tablets like Apple’s iPad 2, Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy Tab as well as in every new tablet; the new 3DS handheld player from Nintendo Corp.; portable media players like Apple’s iPod Touch Fourth Generation (4G); and new smart phones from Samsung such as the Nexus or from LG Electronics like the Optimus.
In addition to 3-axis gyroscopes, new MEMS technology is used in tiny pico projectors that are so small they already are embedded in phones or cameras. Another application of new MEMS can be found in the tiny actuators used for the autofocus function in cameras, packed in a small form factor but able to capture high quality images, according to IHS iSuppli.
The IHS report is entitled: "New MEMS Underpins Consumer Market Expansion."
Revenue this year for new CE and mobile MEMS devices will reach $457.3 million, up by more than a factor of 2.5 from $177.6 million in 2010.
What's more, specific microlectromechanical devices such as 3-axis gyroscopes and pico projectors will generate revenue of $1.4 billion by 2014.
The market research firm projects the established MEMS segment to expand only 10.4 percent this year, compared to the triple-digit growth rate of new CE and mobile MEMS, according to Jérémie Bouchaud, director and principal analyst MEMS and sensors for IHS.
With older products like accelerometers and single- or dual-axis gyroscopes in its stable, established MEMS will continue to produce bigger revenue overall, but growth as a whole in the next three years will be confined to the range of 9 to 12 percent.
Meanwhile, expansion rates for new CE and mobile MEMS will amount to a hefty 31 to 62 percent from 2012 to 2014.
The net effect of such rapid growth is to increase the portion held by new MEMS of the total CE and mobile MEMS revenue pie. As a result, new MEMS in 2014 will account for 39.5 percent of overall revenue--a far cry from the 0.2 percent share in 2007 when the segment earned just $2.4 million. Without the revenue contribution of new MEMS, IHS believes, overall growth in the MEMS space will be dependable but merely stable at best.
Among new MEMS devices, 3-axis gyroscopes are most likely to take a star turn. Found in the likes of the iPhone 4 from Apple Inc. and the Move remote controller for the PlayStation 3 from Sony Corp., 3-axis gyroscopes feature prominently in applications for smart phones and gaming, with motion recognition functions benefiting greatly from the use of the new MEMS component.
Three-axis gyroscopes also can be found in other consumer electronic devices, such as tablets like Apple’s iPad 2, Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy Tab as well as in every new tablet; the new 3DS handheld player from Nintendo Corp.; portable media players like Apple’s iPod Touch Fourth Generation (4G); and new smart phones from Samsung such as the Nexus or from LG Electronics like the Optimus.
In addition to 3-axis gyroscopes, new MEMS technology is used in tiny pico projectors that are so small they already are embedded in phones or cameras. Another application of new MEMS can be found in the tiny actuators used for the autofocus function in cameras, packed in a small form factor but able to capture high quality images, according to IHS iSuppli.
The IHS report is entitled: "New MEMS Underpins Consumer Market Expansion."
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VincePG
4/11/2011 7:57 PM EDT
This article is very confusing. Why don't they just publish the revenue numbers for each segment instead of this confusing array of percentages and multiples?
2010 177.6M, 2011 457.3M, 2.6 times growth ok.
2014 $1.4B, 45% Compounded from 2011 to 2014, ok
Established MEMS 10% growth 2011-2012, ok
New MEMS triple digits growth? Need to calculate
New CE&Mobile MEMS 31% to 62% growth from 2012-14
New CE&Mobile 39.5% share by 2014 so much less today.
If the whole market is growing at 45% and the 70% share is only growing at 10%, do we presume that New CE&Mobile is growing at 122%? If 80% share is growing at 10% then New CE&Mobilie growing at 167% Why don't they just state the number?
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lifewingmate
4/11/2011 11:26 PM EDT
I agree with VincePG that this article would have been easier to follow if it presented a graph with year-on-year growth. The value of the article would have been heightened if the descriptions detailed all of the factors contributing to this large growth. How did they earn what they earned?
In addition, were there any other analysts backing the report? What was the report based on? Also, the author could write about the significance of IHS iSuppli as a market research firm. We have to be careful of reports claiming such high growth when there are environmental, legal, and other unforeseen factors at play.
Finally, having lists to describe all of the types of devices would be easier to scan than having them scattered in sentences throughout. However, if these projections are indeed accurate and realistic, then I can't wait to see the actual growth rates!
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nicolas.mokhoff
4/12/2011 12:28 PM EDT
lifewingmate and VincePG: we have added two charts; they may shed more light on the actual numbers.
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kdboyce
4/13/2011 2:23 AM EDT
Don't forget that iSuppli and similar research firms are in business to sell subscribers and others the full report. Many times the 'teaser' data is presented to lure in more buyers. If you really want to know, buy the report. But remember, a forecast is just a forecast, and is good only at the time it was made. With a base data point and Excel, you can do as well :=). The key value of research data clearly lies in what is historically true (e.g. past performance) and in trends that can be verified using alternative sources. Quarterly updates are needed to see if everything is going according to original forecasts (they don't) and whether the trend is still correct.
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Larry Tsai
4/22/2011 6:10 AM EDT
When developing a model (linear/nonlinear)for demand forecast based on historical data, we must assume the calibrated parameters will not be changed in the future and this is impossible in a changing world !
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