News & Analysis
Intel: Under the smoke and mirrors
Rick Merritt
5/18/2011 6:28 PM EDT
SAN JOSE – The contrast between what Intel was saying and doing at its annual analyst meeting here yesterday was pretty revealing.
The context was clear: Analysts think Intel's PC franchise is starting to look like a pair of worn disco pants at a Web 2.0 party where ARM smartphones and tablets are the latest fashion. Intel execs fought the characterization on many fronts. But their actions spoke louder than their words.
I heard Intel execs repeatedly claim they can design a processor as low in power consumption as anything in the ARM world. Yet the big news from the event was about how Intel was going to increase its focus on low power design, implying execs thought the company needs to do better.
Intel's Dadi Perlmutter did show a chart that—without any hard numbers—suggested Intel's 32nm Atom-based Medfield smartphone processor is about as good as any 40nm chip out today in milliwatt-level power consumption. But so far the chip has been rejected by Nokia, and Intel lacks the confidence to share the names of anyone who might be committed to using it.
One OEM told me Medfield is too power hungry. He called for a new ground-up x86 design beyond the scope of an Atom shrink.
Intel execs also crowed about how Intel has become a software powerhouse, giving it an edge over ARM-based competitors. Yet the reference design for smartphones and tablets it trotted out ran Gingerbread, last year's version of Google's Android environment. A port to the superhot Honeycomb software is still in the works, and MeeGo—Intel's version of mobile Linux—was a footnote in the proceedings.
With 9,000 software engineers, Intel is now the world's third largest software company, execs said. I suspect it is at least fourth behind Google, Microsoft and IBM. In any case a third of those Intel engineers are working on antivirus and other security software in the new McAfee subsidiary, a big factor in how you view the numbers.
I also heard plenty of chest beating from Intel about how vibrant the PC market is with big growth in relatively small emerging markets like Venezuela and moderate growth in mid-sized markets like Mexico and Russia.
The slides Intel put up did not show the lackluster numbers in major markets like Western Europe, Japan and the U.S. Overall the company still estimates the PC TAM will grow 14 percent worldwide over the next several years. But it did admit its estimate will get a haircut down to 11 percent if tablets are as big as some predict.
I am beginning to sense some denial here. Let's not even talk about the FUD Intel is starting to spread on Windows on ARM.
The chart on the left told a more accurate tail. Quarterly sales of Intel's PC client division appears pretty clearly to be peaking. The image would be even more clear if Intel showed a longer swath of the group's financial history.
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daleste
5/18/2011 8:27 PM EDT
Intel still has a lot of cash. They can become a presence in many different markets, but they still haven't been able to get a foothold outside of the PC processor.
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goafrit
5/19/2011 1:28 PM EDT
They can get into anything they want through acquisitions. This is one company that anyone must respect because in their domain, they are very big
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t.alex
5/21/2011 3:41 AM EDT
One thing they can consider is to revamp the ugly x86 architecture.
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goafrit
5/22/2011 10:30 AM EDT
That is it - they have the basics and can build upon that. The simple fact is that the PC world is dying
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Krutsch Robert Cristian
5/19/2011 6:18 AM EDT
This looks a lot like the Intel journey to enter the DSP business. That didn’t work… Careful with the piano on the stairs Intel…
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Aater (@FutureChips.org)
5/19/2011 2:03 PM EDT
Like to point out that DSPs and Low-power general purpose processors are very different. DSPs have very different constraints like real-time, predictability, etc. They throw out a lot of what Intel is good at, e.g., speculative execution, branch prediction, etc. In contrast, doing a low power design is right up their ally as they have all ingredients except low power. I say Intel has a much stronger change here.
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Krutsch Robert Cristian
5/23/2011 7:44 AM EDT
True, DSPs are a different kind of thing compared to low power devices. Have to remind you though that today’s DSPs have speculative execution and branch prediction. We all know the lamentable Intel journey in the DSP business even though ADI keeps on telling us it was a great experience...
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mikin
5/20/2011 3:04 PM EDT
Intel already have a great DSP kernel inside x86 chips (IA32 or IA64) starting with MMX series since 1994, Robert. And it works well otherwise you should see the H264 movies only to DVD :P
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LarryM99
5/19/2011 2:00 PM EDT
The software issue is something of a red herring regarding CPU selection. The platform is defined more by the OS than the CPU anymore. Change one compiler switch and recompile and most applications can speak ARM, as long as the OS libraries are consistent.
Larry M.
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doubleudot
5/19/2011 9:42 PM EDT
Sony, Canon, WD, LaCie and others are apparently on the Thunderbolt bandwagon. Ya gotta keep up.
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rick.merritt
5/19/2011 11:54 PM EDT
@doubleudot: We covered those peripheral folks. But still only one system OEM--Apple
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wee cee
5/20/2011 12:01 PM EDT
What if Apple puts Thunderbolt on iPhones and iPads? Other OEMs are sure to follow.
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Allen.Light
5/20/2011 1:51 PM EDT
Thunderbolt on iPhones and iPads? That would do wonders for your battery life. This technology may be 'royalty free' for Intel chip customers, but it is not an open standard - thus only one supplier for the chips - expect it to remain costly and un-popular until it's open like PCIe or USB.
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agk
5/21/2011 3:38 AM EDT
Intel's focus on low power consuming 32 nm medfield for smart phones will be a boon to the smart phone manufactureres and users.
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Charles.Desassure
5/21/2011 9:02 AM EDT
This is very interesting. I have no idea why Intel would like to take this approach. But they do have the cash.
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Dave.Dykstra
5/21/2011 1:39 PM EDT
Good article, Rick. But, as you point out, there are a lot of unanswered questions being covered up with a lot of hype. They have the cash, but do they have the will and the corporate culture to enable it.
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Simon7382
5/21/2011 4:38 PM EDT
All the people who constantly count out Intel have not learned from history. They have the tenacity come back and win as they proved time and again. I am not sure whether 10 years from now there will be ARM but there will be Intel.
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resistion
5/21/2011 8:32 PM EDT
Intel is trying to influence whole system development, including software. Silicon process is not foreground anymore, nor the CPU. So this is definitely outside their comfort zone.
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UdaraW
5/21/2011 10:55 PM EDT
Yes, Intel has the cash reserves and are in a position to make an effort to grow out of the PC processor market. From the consumers point of view, it would be nice to have Intel competing in low-power mobile processor market. From Intel’s point of view, what motivates Intel to leave its strong-hold in CPU processors and move out of their comfort-zone? Why not focus its effort in trying to improve what Intel is already good at? (E.g., Revamping x86 architecture)?
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Warren
5/24/2011 10:42 AM EDT
A first for Rick in crediting the McAfee purchase as an unqualified good move, at least I think he's never yet quite come out and said it. And regarding MeGo; Intel looks to have a system solution in mind... the software is in place and the hardware's arrival, to successfully compete at any point in the segment stack, looks to be on its way.
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Stuart21
5/24/2011 1:00 PM EDT
INVENTORS - DO NOT TRUST INTEL
I invented a CPU cooler - 3 times better than best - better than water. Intel have major CPU cooling problems - "Intel's microprocessors were generating so much heat that they were melting" (iht.com) - try to talk to them - they send my communications to my competitor & will not talk to me.
Winners of major 'Corporate Social Responsibility' awardS!!!
Huh!!!!
When did RICO get repealed?"
INVENTORS - DO NOT TRUST INTEL!!!
BTW, I have the evidence - my competitor gave it to me.
BBTW, I am prepared to apologize to Intel if;
• They can show that the actions were those of a single individual within the company, but acting outside corporate policy, and:
• They gain redress on my behalf.
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dylan.mcgrath
5/25/2011 5:07 PM EDT
@stuart21- what exactly are you saying? They sent confidential information about your invention to your competitor? What "communications" are you referring to?
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