News & Analysis
Intel: Under the smoke and mirrors
Rick Merritt
5/18/2011 6:28 PM EDT
The complex calculations about PC TAM growth were buttressed with pledges to reinvigorate the design of PC. Boy, that's an old one.
Former Intel exec Pat Gelsinger sang that tune a decade ago, staging a PC fashion show to get Taiwan's beige box makers to compete in industrial design with the Apple iMac. Now Intel says in two years it will lead the market in creating ultrathin tablets that have all the power of a desktop PC, a ten-hour battery life and instant-on software—sounds like the 2011 iPad to me.
Some things just left me scratching my head. Intel said Thunderbolt will go mainstream this year and generate $100 million in revenues. First of all, I thought the interface was royalty free, and secondly I have yet to hear a PC maker other than Apple adopt it.
The company did show some credible highlights. Revenue in the catch-all category of embedded systems is up to $1.5 billion and should grow a heady 25 percent through 2013, thanks in art to the broad adoption of the x86 as a high-end controller in everything from routers and switches to intelligent everythings.
I also give Intel kudos for the McAfee deal which will give it the clout to enable hardware root of trust to any operating system or hypervisor starting this fall. That's a big win for the x86 architecture.
The company also seems to be firing on all cylinders in the data center where Web 2.0 companies are still buying x86 boxes literally by the shipping container. Thank you, Facebook and YouTube.
At the end of the day, Intel has amazingly good process technology, tons of smart engineers and managers with the cojones to try big things, be flexible and move fast. Sometimes they are just a little too ineffective with that whole smoke-and-mirrors marketing routine.
Embedded x86 sales have plenty of room to grow.
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daleste
5/18/2011 8:27 PM EDT
Intel still has a lot of cash. They can become a presence in many different markets, but they still haven't been able to get a foothold outside of the PC processor.
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goafrit
5/19/2011 1:28 PM EDT
They can get into anything they want through acquisitions. This is one company that anyone must respect because in their domain, they are very big
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t.alex
5/21/2011 3:41 AM EDT
One thing they can consider is to revamp the ugly x86 architecture.
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goafrit
5/22/2011 10:30 AM EDT
That is it - they have the basics and can build upon that. The simple fact is that the PC world is dying
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Krutsch Robert Cristian
5/19/2011 6:18 AM EDT
This looks a lot like the Intel journey to enter the DSP business. That didn’t work… Careful with the piano on the stairs Intel…
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Aater (@FutureChips.org)
5/19/2011 2:03 PM EDT
Like to point out that DSPs and Low-power general purpose processors are very different. DSPs have very different constraints like real-time, predictability, etc. They throw out a lot of what Intel is good at, e.g., speculative execution, branch prediction, etc. In contrast, doing a low power design is right up their ally as they have all ingredients except low power. I say Intel has a much stronger change here.
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Krutsch Robert Cristian
5/23/2011 7:44 AM EDT
True, DSPs are a different kind of thing compared to low power devices. Have to remind you though that today’s DSPs have speculative execution and branch prediction. We all know the lamentable Intel journey in the DSP business even though ADI keeps on telling us it was a great experience...
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mikin
5/20/2011 3:04 PM EDT
Intel already have a great DSP kernel inside x86 chips (IA32 or IA64) starting with MMX series since 1994, Robert. And it works well otherwise you should see the H264 movies only to DVD :P
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LarryM99
5/19/2011 2:00 PM EDT
The software issue is something of a red herring regarding CPU selection. The platform is defined more by the OS than the CPU anymore. Change one compiler switch and recompile and most applications can speak ARM, as long as the OS libraries are consistent.
Larry M.
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doubleudot
5/19/2011 9:42 PM EDT
Sony, Canon, WD, LaCie and others are apparently on the Thunderbolt bandwagon. Ya gotta keep up.
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rick.merritt
5/19/2011 11:54 PM EDT
@doubleudot: We covered those peripheral folks. But still only one system OEM--Apple
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wee cee
5/20/2011 12:01 PM EDT
What if Apple puts Thunderbolt on iPhones and iPads? Other OEMs are sure to follow.
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Allen.Light
5/20/2011 1:51 PM EDT
Thunderbolt on iPhones and iPads? That would do wonders for your battery life. This technology may be 'royalty free' for Intel chip customers, but it is not an open standard - thus only one supplier for the chips - expect it to remain costly and un-popular until it's open like PCIe or USB.
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agk
5/21/2011 3:38 AM EDT
Intel's focus on low power consuming 32 nm medfield for smart phones will be a boon to the smart phone manufactureres and users.
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Charles.Desassure
5/21/2011 9:02 AM EDT
This is very interesting. I have no idea why Intel would like to take this approach. But they do have the cash.
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Dave.Dykstra
5/21/2011 1:39 PM EDT
Good article, Rick. But, as you point out, there are a lot of unanswered questions being covered up with a lot of hype. They have the cash, but do they have the will and the corporate culture to enable it.
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Simon7382
5/21/2011 4:38 PM EDT
All the people who constantly count out Intel have not learned from history. They have the tenacity come back and win as they proved time and again. I am not sure whether 10 years from now there will be ARM but there will be Intel.
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resistion
5/21/2011 8:32 PM EDT
Intel is trying to influence whole system development, including software. Silicon process is not foreground anymore, nor the CPU. So this is definitely outside their comfort zone.
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UdaraW
5/21/2011 10:55 PM EDT
Yes, Intel has the cash reserves and are in a position to make an effort to grow out of the PC processor market. From the consumers point of view, it would be nice to have Intel competing in low-power mobile processor market. From Intel’s point of view, what motivates Intel to leave its strong-hold in CPU processors and move out of their comfort-zone? Why not focus its effort in trying to improve what Intel is already good at? (E.g., Revamping x86 architecture)?
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Warren
5/24/2011 10:42 AM EDT
A first for Rick in crediting the McAfee purchase as an unqualified good move, at least I think he's never yet quite come out and said it. And regarding MeGo; Intel looks to have a system solution in mind... the software is in place and the hardware's arrival, to successfully compete at any point in the segment stack, looks to be on its way.
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Stuart21
5/24/2011 1:00 PM EDT
INVENTORS - DO NOT TRUST INTEL
I invented a CPU cooler - 3 times better than best - better than water. Intel have major CPU cooling problems - "Intel's microprocessors were generating so much heat that they were melting" (iht.com) - try to talk to them - they send my communications to my competitor & will not talk to me.
Winners of major 'Corporate Social Responsibility' awardS!!!
Huh!!!!
When did RICO get repealed?"
INVENTORS - DO NOT TRUST INTEL!!!
BTW, I have the evidence - my competitor gave it to me.
BBTW, I am prepared to apologize to Intel if;
• They can show that the actions were those of a single individual within the company, but acting outside corporate policy, and:
• They gain redress on my behalf.
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dylan.mcgrath
5/25/2011 5:07 PM EDT
@stuart21- what exactly are you saying? They sent confidential information about your invention to your competitor? What "communications" are you referring to?
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