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Cowan LRA Model
"Whoops!" I goofed - Diesen's 3MMA sales expectation for July is $24.8 billion ...
Cowan LRA Model
Hi Peter (and Bruce) - as gleamed from the latest run of the Cowan LRA ...
Analyst sees firm July, raises chip forecast
Peter Clarke
9/1/2011 7:12 AM EDT
LONDON – The three-month average of global chip sales for July is going to be reported as $24.8 billion, up compared with a figure of $24.68 billion reported for June by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
However a seasonal increase on a three-monthly average in the semiconductor market is usually strong in July and the average would still be 2 percent behind the equivalent figure for 2010, $25.12 billion.
However, Diesen said that on a seasonal basis July showed strength after softness in May and June. Diesen tweaked his predictions for global chip market growth in dollar terms in 2011 up to 4 percent, from a previous prediction of 3 percent.
The technology sector is one of the four largest sectors in the Chinese economy along with motor vehicles, electricity production and steel production, Diesen said.
China has been suffering from a continued shortage of electricity, but cooler weather in early July led to an easing of the electricity shortage which in July was 20-GWh as compared with an expected shortage of 30-GWh. Foxconn, the producer of the iPhone and other consumer electronics products is China's largest exporter.
Another bullet point for July from Diesen is that China exported 77 million mobile phone handsets in July up 27 percent year-on-year, while personal computer production rose 55 percent year-on-year in July making that month the strongest monthly growth of 2011.
Related links and articles:
Analyst sees upside in 2H11 chip market
Global Q2 chip sales confirm falling market
Analyst sees soft June, lowers chip forecast
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Cowan LRA Model
9/1/2011 5:41 PM EDT
Hi Peter (and Bruce) - as gleamed from the latest run of the Cowan LRA forecasting model, July 2011's "actual" sales forecast expectation is $24.410 billion. This would correspond to a July 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $25.007 billion.
This assumes no (or very minor) sales revisions to either May or June's published "actual" sales numbers as part of the WSTS's July HBR (Historical Billings Report) relative to June 2011's HBR published early last month.
Consequently, the Cowan LRA Model's July 3MMA sales forecast is slightly more bullish compared to Bruce Diesen's prediction of $24.68 billion as quoted above.
Additionally the model's latest 2011 sales growth forecast at 5.0 percent is likewise slightly more bullish than Diesen's latest expectation of 4 percent.
The WSTS is expected to post its July 2011 HBR the beginning of next week. Therefore, stay tuned for the soon to-be-updated results based upon July 2011's "actual" sales numbers.
Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting (each month) global semi sales.
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Cowan LRA Model
9/2/2011 9:50 AM EDT
"Whoops!" I goofed - Diesen's 3MMA sales expectation for July is $24.8 billion NOT the $24.68 billion I mentioned in my comment directly above.
Sorry Bruce and Peter.
Mike C.
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