Analyst's model predicts 3% chip market growth in 2012

LONDON – The global chip market will grow by between 2.3 and 4.3 percent in 2012, according to market analyst Mike Cowan.

Cowan has updated his linear regression analysis (LRA) model of the global chip market with the latest data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

Cowan's model takes into account the WSTS figure for global chip sales in 2011 of $299.52 billion and predicts a figure for 2012 of between $306.381 and $312.381 billion in 2012 corresponding to 2.3 and 4.3 percent growth, respectively.

The mid-point market size of $309.381 billion would correspond to a growth of 3.3 percent. This is close to WSTS prediction for 2012 of $310 billion.

Cowan also reckons that January 2012 actual sales will come in at between $22.491 billion on the low side and $22.937 billion on the high side.

This would compare with actual sales in January 2011 of $25.17 billion, and therefore signal the global chip market continuing to decline against the same month in the year before.

For the four quarters of 2012 Cowan is predicting chip sales figures of $73.316 billion, $75.021 billion, $81.445 billion and $79.598 billion for Q1 through Q4 in sequence. According to Cowan the first and second quarters of 2012 will be lower than the equivalent quarters a year before while the third and fourth quarters will show the market returning to annual growth.


Related links and articles:

Global chip sales squeeze 0.4% annual growth

WSTS drops 2012 chip market growth