News & Analysis
Tablets to outsell notebooks in 2016, says analyst
Peter Clarke
7/16/2012 11:34 AM EDT
LONDON – Shipments of tablet computers will surpass those of notebook computers in 2016, according to market analysis firm NPD DisplaySearch.
Notebook computer shipments are also expected to increase from 208 million units in 2012 to 393 million units in 2017, the company said. Over the same period tablet computer shipments are expected to grow from 121 million units in 2012 to 416 million units in 2017, yielding a compound annual growth rate of 28 percent.
Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to over 809 million units in 2017. The notebook computer will be 60 percent of mobile computer shipments in 2012, declining to 49 percent in 2017, DisplaySearch said.
Click on image to enlarge.
Worldwide mobile computer shipment forecast (in 000s). Source: NPD DisplaySearch.
Notebook computers will evolve under the challenge from the tablet to include thinner form factors, higher resolution displays and touch functionality and thereby blur the distinction between the two form factors, the research firm said.
Click on image to enlarge.
Emerging and mature market tablet shipments (in 000s). Source: NPD DisplaySearch.
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chanj
7/16/2012 12:08 PM EDT
Is Surface defined as a tablet or a PC?
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rick.merritt
7/16/2012 2:03 PM EDT
I'm not sure I buy this. Despite being a consumer product I am not sure tablets will grow quite this quickly. I expect they could outpace notebooks someday, but I'd put another 3-5 years in there.
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any1
7/16/2012 3:08 PM EDT
I think this could easily happen given products like the recently introduced Google tablet at such low price points.
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Bert22306
7/16/2012 5:00 PM EDT
I actually have no problem believing this, because the tablet, a la iPad or Kindle Fire, is more of a consumer toy. Whereas the notebook is a PC, more of a real productivity tool. So why wouldn't a consumer toy outpace the sales of a more flexible and more useful device like a PC?
Since these are significantly different products, the comparison seems wrong. But on the other hand, as others have noted, new devices like the Microsoft Surface would blur the lines.
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daleste
7/16/2012 10:26 PM EDT
I agree. The tablet will take over a lot of the "fun" stuff of computing, but the laptop will still be there for the serious work.
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sprite0022
7/16/2012 8:31 PM EDT
maybe a it's better to compare x86 cpu vs. Non-x86 cpu machines.
I can see if a notebook equiped with a ARM cpu will cost same/lower as a tablet and similar function.
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davisHeiskell
7/19/2012 8:04 AM EDT
Research firm NPD estimates that tablets will out-ship notebooks by 2016 due to one factor alone the consumer's desire for more portability.......
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