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dylan.mcgrath
Mike- Thanks as always for chiming in. I appreciate the additional perspective.
Cowan LRA Model
Hi Dylan - Diesen's expectations for June global semi sales are in generally ...
Chip sales likely slowed in June, says analyst
Dylan McGrath
7/17/2012 11:39 AM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO—Worldwide semiconductor sales on a three-month average basis were likely about $24.55 billion in June, up slightly from $24.4 billion in May, but down from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
Diesen noted that the seasonal dip would be compared with the reasonably strong levels of May, when chip sales came in better than expected. He added that sales of $24.55 billion in June would still be a decent level.
"There have been some recent profit warnings in the PC and handset sectors, but that seems to be something that will show up in chip shipments in Q3," Diesen wrote in a report circulated Tuesday (July 17).
Earlier this month, Diesen lowered his forecast for 2012 chip sales, saying he now expects sales to be roughly flat with 2011 sales of around $300 billion. That puts Diesen's forecast for the year in line with forecasts from the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group.
Last week, Malcom Penn, CEO of market research firm Future Horizons, lowered his firm's estimate for 2012 chip sales growth to 4 percent from 8 percent, citing a push-out of the recovery cycle due to macro-economic effects such as the continuing Eurozone crisis.
Diesen expects chip sales to grow by about 7 percent in 2013.
Diesen noted that the seasonal dip would be compared with the reasonably strong levels of May, when chip sales came in better than expected. He added that sales of $24.55 billion in June would still be a decent level.
"There have been some recent profit warnings in the PC and handset sectors, but that seems to be something that will show up in chip shipments in Q3," Diesen wrote in a report circulated Tuesday (July 17).
Earlier this month, Diesen lowered his forecast for 2012 chip sales, saying he now expects sales to be roughly flat with 2011 sales of around $300 billion. That puts Diesen's forecast for the year in line with forecasts from the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group.
Last week, Malcom Penn, CEO of market research firm Future Horizons, lowered his firm's estimate for 2012 chip sales growth to 4 percent from 8 percent, citing a push-out of the recovery cycle due to macro-economic effects such as the continuing Eurozone crisis.
Diesen expects chip sales to grow by about 7 percent in 2013.
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Cowan LRA Model
7/17/2012 6:20 PM EDT
Hi Dylan - Diesen's expectations for June global semi sales are in generally good agreement with the latest forecast estimates derived from the latest Cowan LRA forecast model run based on May's actual sales published by the WSTS last July 6th. Specifically the model's June 3MMA sales is projected to come in at $24.8 billion - slightly higher than Diesen's projection of $24.6 billion. Additionally, the model's year 2012 sales growth forecast estimate is predicted to be plus 0.1 percent which is essentially no growth at all compared to 2011's sales. This result matches Diesen's prognostication - namely flat growth.
Details can be found at the following URL = http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/10/07/2012/54089/cowan-predicts-flat-2012.htm.
Regards, Mike Cowan (developer of the Cowan LRA forecast model)
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dylan.mcgrath
7/17/2012 6:36 PM EDT
Mike- Thanks as always for chiming in. I appreciate the additional perspective.
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