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Cowan LRA Model
Hi Dylan - my newly updated Cowan LRA Model's forecast numbers are presently ...
dylan.mcgrath
Whoops. Thanks Bill. I've corrected the chart.
Semico cuts 2012 chip market growth forecast
Dylan McGrath
8/8/2012 7:28 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO—Semico Research Corp. this week became the latest market research firm to cut its forecast for 2012 chip market growth, saying it now expects global semiconductor sales to increase 6 to 8 percent in 2012.
Semico (Phoenix) had said earlier this year it expected the chip market to grow by 8 to 10 percent this year. The company said this week that at the beginning of the year it was more optimistic partly because of pent-up PC demand stemming from the flooding in Thailand last year.
Semico said it also had hoped that problems in the Eurozone would be resolved, but that the problems persist.
Despite the forecast cut, Semico remains more optimistic than other noteable semiconductor industry market watchers. Semico's growth forecast for the chip market remains the high water mark, with most market research firms expecting growth of between 2 and 6 percent this year.
Earlier this week, ABI Research said the chip market could contract by up to 5 percent this year due to a lack of confidence in the global economy and a past lack of investment in semiconductor manufacturing setting the stage for a soft second half of the year.
Semico (Phoenix) had said earlier this year it expected the chip market to grow by 8 to 10 percent this year. The company said this week that at the beginning of the year it was more optimistic partly because of pent-up PC demand stemming from the flooding in Thailand last year.
Semico said it also had hoped that problems in the Eurozone would be resolved, but that the problems persist.
Despite the forecast cut, Semico remains more optimistic than other noteable semiconductor industry market watchers. Semico's growth forecast for the chip market remains the high water mark, with most market research firms expecting growth of between 2 and 6 percent this year.
Earlier this week, ABI Research said the chip market could contract by up to 5 percent this year due to a lack of confidence in the global economy and a past lack of investment in semiconductor manufacturing setting the stage for a soft second half of the year.
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bmccleanicinsights
8/8/2012 8:42 PM EDT
As was noted in the story about IC Insights' ranking of the top 20 1H12 semiconductor suppliers last week on the EETimes web site, our current forecast for total semiconductor market growth for 2012 is +3%.
Bill McClean
President, IC Insights
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dylan.mcgrath
8/9/2012 12:40 AM EDT
Whoops. Thanks Bill. I've corrected the chart.
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daleste
8/8/2012 10:51 PM EDT
Wow, lots of pessimism. I hope things get better soon and these numbers are low compared to the actual at the end of the year.
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Cowan LRA Model
8/9/2012 4:34 PM EDT
Hi Dylan - my newly updated Cowan LRA Model's forecast numbers are presently predicting 2012 sales and sales growth expectations of $296.97 billion and minus 0.85 percent, respectively. These latest forecast results are derived from the actual June sales just published by the WSTS. Details of my latest forecast model's run can be seen at the following URL = http://pradeepchakraborty.wordpress.com/2012/08/09/cowan-lra-models-updated-forecast-for-global-semicon-sales-2012/#more-8097.
Therefore, the 2012 sales growth number you invoked for the Cowan LRA (Model) in the above table has declined and has dropped into negative territory.
Mike Cowan (independent market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model for global semi sales)
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