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daleste
I really do hate to see these kind of reports. Sometimes it seems like the are ...
ABIsemis
Unlike many other research firms, ABI Research have been predicting a WW ...
Chip market now seen shrinking in '12
Dylan McGrath
8/23/2012 1:27 PM EDT
Q3 boost won't be enough
Sales targets provided by key chip suppliers indicate that the market will growth 6 percent sequentially in the third quarter, another relatively weak seasonal performance, IHS said. Subdued expansions for the key third and fourth quarters indicate the semiconductor market will not generate sufficient growth to prevent the market from contracting for the year, according to IHS.
IHS said PCs and related peripherals are the key market segment pulling down the overall chip market in 2012. The previous IHS iSuppli forecast predicted that the expansion of the wireless communications sector would be big enough to propel growth for the chip market this year. But the downward pressure created by the worsening deceleration of the PC semiconductor market is now expected to outweigh the mid single-digit growth in semiconductor demand forecast expected for wireless communications and the smaller industrial electronics segment, according to IHS.
Ford shipments of new products such as as Ultrabooks and other ultrathin PC platforms in the second half of the year would give the PC market a much needed boost, but not enough to offset the counterweight of growing economic worries limiting consumer spending.
IHS now expects broad-based revenue decline in 2012 across most semiconductor component categories.
IHS is still forecasting a strong rebound of more than 9 percent growth in 2013, based on expectations of improving economic conditions. But multiple high-impact factors still present the risk of a strong downturn in the economy in 2013, which would also pull down the electronics and semiconductor industries, according to IHS. These factors include the Eurozone crisis, significantly slower growth in China, the potential federal tax and budget "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. and turmoil in the Middle East, according to IHS.
Related stories:
Sales targets provided by key chip suppliers indicate that the market will growth 6 percent sequentially in the third quarter, another relatively weak seasonal performance, IHS said. Subdued expansions for the key third and fourth quarters indicate the semiconductor market will not generate sufficient growth to prevent the market from contracting for the year, according to IHS.
IHS said PCs and related peripherals are the key market segment pulling down the overall chip market in 2012. The previous IHS iSuppli forecast predicted that the expansion of the wireless communications sector would be big enough to propel growth for the chip market this year. But the downward pressure created by the worsening deceleration of the PC semiconductor market is now expected to outweigh the mid single-digit growth in semiconductor demand forecast expected for wireless communications and the smaller industrial electronics segment, according to IHS.
Ford shipments of new products such as as Ultrabooks and other ultrathin PC platforms in the second half of the year would give the PC market a much needed boost, but not enough to offset the counterweight of growing economic worries limiting consumer spending.
IHS now expects broad-based revenue decline in 2012 across most semiconductor component categories.
IHS is still forecasting a strong rebound of more than 9 percent growth in 2013, based on expectations of improving economic conditions. But multiple high-impact factors still present the risk of a strong downturn in the economy in 2013, which would also pull down the electronics and semiconductor industries, according to IHS. These factors include the Eurozone crisis, significantly slower growth in China, the potential federal tax and budget "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. and turmoil in the Middle East, according to IHS.
Related stories:
- Semico cuts 2012 chip market growth forecast
- Chip market still shrinking versus 2011, says SIA
- Analysts find May was weak month for chip market
- Analyst lowers chip market forecast for 2012
- Semi market growth seen as doubling
- Chip market could fall by 5% in 2012, says ABI
- In Asia-Pac, local OEMs have Apple-like supply chain clout
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Cowan LRA Model
8/23/2012 4:56 PM EDT
Hi Dylan - I wanted to make you aware that I updated my forecast for 2012 global semi sales and sales growth to $297 billion and minus 0.9 percent, respectively, at the beginning of August following the release of June's HBR by the WSTS.
Additionally, Semiconductor Intelligence's latest sales growth forecast for 2012 was also changed to -1.0 percent on August 16th. Details can be seen at the following URL = http://www.semiconductorintelligence.com/?p=600.
Mike C.
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dylan.mcgrath
8/23/2012 7:41 PM EDT
Thanks Mike. Sorry for the mix up. I'll update the chart.
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GoGoGeek
8/24/2012 12:56 PM EDT
Revenue effects spending as well! I think SEMI will come out with their worldfabforecast report next week. Should be interesting!
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daleste
8/24/2012 11:35 PM EDT
It did feel like the economy was not improving as much as the old numbers showed. I hope 2013 really will be a good growth year.
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eewiz
8/25/2012 5:16 AM EDT
Analysts.. I believe them. Totally.
Here is an analyst report from 2007 about iPhone, that I enjoyed reading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRelVKWbMAv0
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dylan.mcgrath
8/25/2012 11:19 PM EDT
@eewiz- nice reference. It was fun reading. Indeed, I think it's safe to say that they analysts quoted in that story were off the mark.
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ABIsemis
8/29/2012 10:00 AM EDT
Unlike many other research firms, ABI Research have been predicting a WW semiconductor market decline since our 1Q12 review of the market. This was reiterated in a press release in June as published by EE Times:
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4391761/Chip-market-will-fall-2012-says-ABI
I'm surprised that we have not been included in the list.
Peter Cooney - ABI Research Practice Director, Semiconductors
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daleste
8/31/2012 12:10 AM EDT
I really do hate to see these kind of reports. Sometimes it seems like the are a self fulfilling prophecy more than a prediction based on the trends seen in the numbers.
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