Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era

9/4/2012 5:36 PM EDT

I continue to react with the same old refrain to these news items about the "post PC era." Apples and oranges.

Possibly, if tablet computers become more generally useful in the future, they will actually replace PCs. But until then, tablets and smart phones don't replace, they augment PCs. This would be the case unless there's evidence that kids in school or people at work are doing all of their research and writing, you know, all of their actual "work," on the smart phone or tablet.

The fact that smart phones and tablets have yet to saturate the market is probably why their growth is greater than that of PCs. And too, gadget freaks will want a smart phone AND a tablet, even if they already own a PC, so the number of these handheld devices will likely be greater than the number of PCs.

If tablets come out with flexible OSs and with keyboards/mouse, so you can actually do stuff on them without being restricted to just what's available on downloaded "apps," THEN we can talk about "post PC era."

9/4/2012 5:51 PM EDT

One of the appeals of tablets is that they are much more like a true appliance than is a PC. They do less, but they do less with a lot less user fuss. PCs will stay around for a very long time, because, as Bert says, tablets augment but don't replace. I'd would add "in the core PC market."

Part of the big miss here is that there are quite a few people that don't need the capabilities of a full PC. The more limited functions of a tablet will take care of their needs just fine and, because it's instant on, more portable, and comes with less hassle, holds more appeal to that set.

Wintel missed the boat, not because they are going to be replaced by tablets, but because there pretty much isn't any technical reason why a Wintel device couldn't have had a game-winning portion of the tablet benefits well before the iPad.

It's the year 2012 and while my laptop is massively more powerful and capable than my computers of years past, it's really not much easier to use than a Windows 3 computer from the prior century. It doesn't boot any faster. It's measurable easier to install peripherals, but not necessarily much easier to keep them up to date and working.

The tablets are a generation or two backwards in power and capability, but a generation or two or three ahead of the typical PC in terms of useability by the average non-technical person.

9/4/2012 9:04 PM EDT

The "decline of Wintel" is far more worrying for Microsoft than for Intel. Apple has been using Intel chips in their computers for quite a while now, and they command around 10% of the US PC market. Although they don't have much share of the mobile space, their foray to this market is still in its infancy, and future products could change things considerably.

Even as a latecomer, there's very little preventing mass-adoption of x86 in mobile. Consumers aren't tied to particular brands of chips like they are to handset manufacturers (though Intel itself may have some mindshare). If they can convince OEM's to adopt their chips into major products, then they could achieve the same domination of the mobile space that they enjoy in the PC space. For instance, what if the (hypothetical) iPhone 6 or the Galaxy S4 used Atom processors?

9/4/2012 9:14 PM EDT

Microsoft has no choice but to end partnership with Intel. Intel is behind in SOCs process/design due to lack of wireless design IP building blocks and non optimal SOC silicon process technology. For design, example, take LTE modem. No discrete chip available in market currently and integrated LTE plus Atom chip will not happen until late 2014 (Qualcomm on the market now).
Intel's fast process node race worked well for a single point design of a digital microprocessor. SOCs are much more complex with many different IP blocks. Intel's great manufacturing "lead" is a handicap in mobile SOC since (1) wafers are expensive, (2) process moves too fast (spice models always changing), and (3) has lots and lots of design restrictions, and (4) no support for good RF devices (required in the mobile world).

9/5/2012 11:20 AM EDT

I have put Intel a Sell until they figure out a strategy on mobile. Right now, they are not winning.

9/5/2012 11:44 AM EDT

Both Microsoft and Intel to begin with, were in the right direction in the onset of mobile efforts. Years back Intel had Xscale (Strong ARM) and Microsoft had Windows CE. Both were technically ahead of their time (for mobile that is) but OEM's were only half hearted in which the only serious developments were up to phone-PDA applications or large "touch screen" type tablets.

Looking back, both companies ideas were looking into small factor mobile devices that would emulate their big PC brothers in which techies on in-the-know could expertly use. It was another instance of "people adapting / learning technology" NOT "technology simplified for the consumer" which is what Apple did for the tablet.

In the end, Intel just decided to sell Xscale and Microsoft just gave up on windows CE.... only seeing them back years after, this time knocking on the tablet bandwagon.

But one wonders, if they just stuck to it long enough,..... if they had adapted to looking at simplification and the common consumer in mind, should we now be looking forward to the latest Wintel mobile device or tablet instead of an Android or Apple OS device? Instead of the "baby step" efforts that we see right now from both giants?

9/5/2012 12:48 PM EDT

PC's are becoming the new workstations: devices used strictly by businesses to accomplish work. Tablets and dedicated appliances are displacing PC's when it comes to entertainment. Home use of PC's is going to get gobbled up by tablets. Intel and Microsoft will still have their place, but they won't be ruling the roost as they used to.

9/5/2012 1:01 PM EDT

I don't know. I tend to agree with Bert. A tablet is great, if you already have a PC. It's a nice addition. But when it comes to doing the heavy lifting, I still think most people are going to want to use a PC.

9/5/2012 1:04 PM EDT

The way I read the last table, 29% from 2016 M-units = 585M-units is a nice growth from 41% of 902 M-units = 370 M-units. That's 58% growth in 5 years for Intel.
And that's assuming they don't do something to fix the market share too, which they will sure try.
I'm holding while you guys are selling...

9/5/2012 2:03 PM EDT

I work for

9/5/2012 8:33 PM EDT

The iSuppli analysis is interesting but speculative.

They don't know what Intel or Msoft will do to win a position in tablets and smartphones over the next few years or what other inevitable twists and turns are ahead that will mess with their linear projections.

That said, Wintel has been poorly aligned with some of the main vectors of mobile computing for awhile. Despite that, there also is still plenty of market and some growth ahead for years to come in Wintel notebooks, servers and even PCs.

9/5/2012 9:44 PM EDT

{disclosure: I work for Intel; my opinions are my own and do not represent the company's perspective}

I personally have been off Windows for fifteen years, with most of my machines running FreeBSD or Linux, including my productivity machines.

The reason I point this out is that everybody, including the ARM folks and smartphone and tablet makers, has been a beneficiary of the huge leaps in process technology and volume manufacturing that Wintel made possible. I absolutely giggle with delight at the horsepower in my several-generations old 1st generation 4-core Inspiron. For the longest time everybody desperately clung to the 'PC compatible' Wintel formula precisely because it was so successful. Doing anything else was a ticket to obscurity or possibly suicide. I would also point out that IBM's failure to protect its design IP was a fortuitous blessing that made it all grow. Were IBM Apple, the computing future would have been far different, and that's a question worth some serious rumination.

What's happening now is that Intel continues to forge ahead in manufacturing technology -- semiconductor, process AND fab -- and the other guys are struggling and blustering about catching up.

Intel has bought a lot of key pieces of IP with its war chest, including the former Infineon's analog expertise, and the company is already preparing to stuff its new *14nm* fabs with equipment paid for by the still-huge *global* PC and server markets.

Couple that with the drastic reduction in leakage and heat caused by the full-depletion transistors in Tri-Gate technology, and anybody but an idiot stock analyst has got to know that Chipzilla has just begun to play.

None of which means I disagree with most of iSuppli's comments, it's just that it's such old news. The future will carry us far beyond QWERTY versus consumption very quickly. It's absolutely true that Wintel as a formula is waning but don't count Intel ... or MS for that matter... out so quickly.

9/6/2012 3:15 AM EDT

Bert et al: you are right that tablets, smart-phones etc cannot do as much as a PC, but you seem to miss the point that the things that PCs do better are things that most of us do rarely in a home environment. The things we use Tablets and smartphones for (browsing, email, shopping) are things that we used to use the PC for, but now don't have to.

9/6/2012 3:38 AM EDT

guys, if more chinese white box $50 tablet starts to invade US, you ll see laptop business just collapse like a snowball.

a tablet won't need to cost %200, $50, or maybe $80 will do the job.

9/6/2012 11:38 AM EDT

I've said it before, and I'll probably say it again: A tablet is a better device for content consumption, a PC/laptop is a better device for content production.

At this moment I'd rather write a book on a laptop. I'd rather watch a youtube video on a tablet. The issue is that for most media 90% are consumers and 10% are producers. When you generalize a bit more, and take into account that everyone produces something on a computer/tablet (even if it's just a facebook post or email) then the numbers start to shift a little: more like 70% are light producers, 30% are heavy producers.

The tablet is doing something amazing though: it it is putting a connected device in the hands of people who are too scared to attempt the more "complicated" computer. It is training them and letting them access content and community that they never would before. And for some it's acting as a gateway device to more powerful devices. Those who find they like creating light content often branch into more content production and require a better device.

On the other hand it is also acting as an augmentation for those who are already tech savvy. How many tech-capable people are starting to get a tablet for portable display of work, or easy collaboration, or mobile note-taking. It's becoming a device of enablement that allows them to to take their work with them and easily connect back to the technology they left at their desk: it's an extension.

Intel (x86) will, for the foreseeable future, have a place as the powerhouse that gets things done. And MS will continue to make the operating system that runs most of the corporate world. And if Win8 plays out well, they will build a synergy between mobile and powerful devices that will allow for easier creation, transportation, and sharing of content. Because let's face it, the biggest problem with mobile/desktop collaboration is getting the data from one to the other, or finding apps that are interoperable on both.

9/6/2012 12:41 PM EDT

PCs like TVs have reached market saturation. Tablets and smart phones haven't. This doesn't mean that PCs are going away. How many people own a tablet or a smart phone but don't own a PC or a TV?

9/7/2012 11:42 AM EDT

IMHO tablets and PCs have well defined roles although the division line has blurry edges:

Tablet: content fruition

PC: content production

2 years ago I made everything with a PC.

Now I find much quicker to _check_ e-mail with my smartphone/tablet, to _watch_ a YouTube video on my smartphone/tablet, to _have a peek at_ a web site with a tablet.

... but still prefer to _write_ e-mail, _edit_ family videos, _accessing_ the home banking server with a PC.

The fact that many actions once performed with a PC are much better experiences (read: quicker) on a tablet/smartphone (think about waiting the PC to boot just to read an e-mail) are removing some (a lot of) market share from Wintel alliance... OS importance plummeted, it became just a commodity, but battery life now is paramount: a tablet with wires sucks.