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GoGoGeek
I recently heard SEMI saying that fab equipment is revised from -5% to -7% for ...
PV-Geek
I think there is another factor at play too. Equipment spending is heavily ...
Fab tool demand on the decline
Dylan McGrath
10/1/2012 5:52 PM EDT
Market weakness depressing utilization
Johnson said a period of semiconductor inventory level reduction, which lowered production levels, appears to be over. But overall market weakness is continuing to depress utilization levels, Johnson said. Increased demand and lower yields at advanced nodes is creating equipment shortages for high end logic production tools, but not enough to bring overall utilization to desired levels, he said.
"In the memory segment, some suppliers are even cutting production in an attempt to shore up weak market fundamentals," Johnson said.
Gartner said in July it expected worldwide wafer fab equipment spending to total $33 billion in 2012, down 9 percent from $36.2 billion in 2011.
Gartner's 2013 fab equipment forecast differs substantially from a forecast issued last month by fab tool vendor trade group SEMI. That forecast calls for spending on front-end fab equipment—excluding test, assembly and packaging gear—to increase 17 percent in 2013 to reach a new record high of $42.7 billion.
SEMI's mid-year consensus forecast for semiconductor equipment sales in 2012 is also more optimistic than Gartner's revised forecast. The mid-year consensus forecast, issued in July, predicts that equipment spending will decline about 3 percent in 2012.
Gartner predicts that tool spending by memory chip makers will continue to be weak through 2012. The firm revised its forecast for foundry capital spending downward for 2012 and 2013 due to early improvements in 28-nm yield. But Gartner raised its capex estimate for foundries in future years due to more aggressive development of 450-mm wafers and extreme ultraviolet lithography.
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Johnson said a period of semiconductor inventory level reduction, which lowered production levels, appears to be over. But overall market weakness is continuing to depress utilization levels, Johnson said. Increased demand and lower yields at advanced nodes is creating equipment shortages for high end logic production tools, but not enough to bring overall utilization to desired levels, he said.
"In the memory segment, some suppliers are even cutting production in an attempt to shore up weak market fundamentals," Johnson said.
Gartner said in July it expected worldwide wafer fab equipment spending to total $33 billion in 2012, down 9 percent from $36.2 billion in 2011.
Gartner's 2013 fab equipment forecast differs substantially from a forecast issued last month by fab tool vendor trade group SEMI. That forecast calls for spending on front-end fab equipment—excluding test, assembly and packaging gear—to increase 17 percent in 2013 to reach a new record high of $42.7 billion.
SEMI's mid-year consensus forecast for semiconductor equipment sales in 2012 is also more optimistic than Gartner's revised forecast. The mid-year consensus forecast, issued in July, predicts that equipment spending will decline about 3 percent in 2012.
Gartner predicts that tool spending by memory chip makers will continue to be weak through 2012. The firm revised its forecast for foundry capital spending downward for 2012 and 2013 due to early improvements in 28-nm yield. But Gartner raised its capex estimate for foundries in future years due to more aggressive development of 450-mm wafers and extreme ultraviolet lithography.
Related stories:
- Fab tool spending to fall 9% in 2012, says Gartner
- Global chips sales slipped in August, says Diesen
- Fab tool spending to decline 2.6% in 2012, SEMI says
- Ultrabook sales falling short
- Micron hopes for better times ahead
- Which way forward for Infineon?
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PV-Geek
10/2/2012 5:34 PM EDT
I think there is another factor at play too. Equipment spending is heavily influenced by migration to newer technology nodes. Since fewer and fewer fabs are migrating to the more advanced nodes, due to complexity and cost, there are fewer technology migrations to drive equipment spending. Even if you argue that the fewer fabs will need to buy more equipment to cover the demand, it will at least induce more fluctuation in the spending as the process migration will be more sporatic with fewer players to even out the averages.
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GoGoGeek
10/3/2012 12:39 PM EDT
I recently heard SEMI saying that fab equipment is revised from -5% to -7% for 2012 and for 2013 from 17% to 13%. Still quite optimistic for 2013 but in sink with revenue predictions.
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