News & Analysis
Bechtolsheim brainstorms on next networking wave
Rick Merritt
10/17/2012 9:46 AM EDT
Three Ethernet waves
Click on image to enlarge.
By 2013, half of all servers could include 10GE interfaces, rising to 80 percent in 2015, Bechtolsheim predicted. That’s about when Intel’s 22-nm server processors based on its Haswell design will emerge, starting a shift to 40GE on servers.
The good news is large-scale data centers are creating a robust growth market for such systems. Bechtolsheim showed market research figures estimating the data center switch business alone will rise from $4-5 billion in 2010 to $15 billion in 2015.
“This is basically tripling in five years--one of the few IT markets growing at this rate and it’s driven by the shifts from 1 to 10 and 40GE,” he said.
Click on image to enlarge.
By 2013, half of all servers could include 10GE interfaces, rising to 80 percent in 2015, Bechtolsheim predicted. That’s about when Intel’s 22-nm server processors based on its Haswell design will emerge, starting a shift to 40GE on servers.
The good news is large-scale data centers are creating a robust growth market for such systems. Bechtolsheim showed market research figures estimating the data center switch business alone will rise from $4-5 billion in 2010 to $15 billion in 2015.
“This is basically tripling in five years--one of the few IT markets growing at this rate and it’s driven by the shifts from 1 to 10 and 40GE,” he said.
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rick.merritt
10/18/2012 2:39 PM EDT
Does Andy have it right? wrong? What do you think?
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elPresidente
10/19/2012 4:40 PM EDT
That "100,000 chips or it ain't worth it" has been the mantra for decades - nothing new.
100Gb/s FPGAs have been around for a couple of years now. Again, nothing new.
No mention of 160Gb/s, or 400Gb/s, which are upcoming. Sounds to me like he's trying to solve procurement channel problems in his investment portfolio, vs being a visionary driver of industry.
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Philip Papadopoulos
10/26/2012 5:43 PM EDT
There is a fundamental utility limit of the network entering/exiting a server -- that's memory bandwidth. 400Gb/s is 50GB/sec, which is on par with achievable total memory bandwidth of common servers. When your network becomes faster than memory speed, you have to wonder about practical utility of that extra unusable capacity. I would argue that the practical limit is closer to single memory channel speed, not aggregate system memory bandwidth. Today, a 2100MHz DDR3 Channel is 17GB/sec ~ 136Gbps.
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krh
10/20/2012 12:33 AM EDT
$$ per bit...Andy has it right for the next 5 years...
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rick.merritt
10/22/2012 4:39 PM EDT
Two great and opposing views here.
I'd love to hear some more thoughtful opinions on whether Andy has the future of networking right and why or why not.
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Philip Papadopoulos
10/26/2012 5:36 PM EDT
1) Andy's talking about the server space. I think he's bang on. The adoption curves look to be very similar to past networking tech uptakes.
2) He's not talking about the desktop space and/or wireless space. GigE is now pressed down on el-cheapo DIY motherboards, but you don't really need greater than 1GbE in your house for the next 1/2 decade) Hence, you cannot necessarily make the same volume argument for bringing down the price of 10GbE at the same rate.
That means that the absolute price of 10G won't drop as quickly as it did for 1G, but it will get there. Of that, I have no doubt. Afterall, as people rely on network (buzzword cloud) services, the number of servers continues to rise. And Ideally you keep constant BW/core as you deploy big systems. As core count rises, so do your network bandwidth needs.
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