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rick.merritt
Gartner is working up similar numbers, an analyst told me today: 2012 down ~ 4%, ...
Cowan LRA Model
Hi Peter - the latest Cowan LRA Model's global semiconductor sales growth ...
Chip market to fall in 2012, rise in 2013
Peter Clarke
11/27/2012 8:03 AM EST
LONDON – The WSTS industry organization has revised its previous forecasts down and now predicts a weak end to the year for the global chip market.
As a result the global chip market will be worth $290 billion in 2012, down 3.2 percent from 2011 but will recover in 2013 rising by 4.5 percent, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.
WSTS has revised its forecasts for growth in 2012 and 2013 down from previous forecast given in June 2012 of 0.4 percent growth in 2012 and 7.2 percent growth in 2013 (see SIA, WSTS expect flat chips sales in 2012). The reduced expectations are mainly due to uncertainty in the world economy including a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Other forecasters have been more optimistic recently (see Report: Rising GDP set to boost chip markets).
The 2012 market weakness is broad, WSTS said, with contraction in all geographical regions and all product categories except logic and optoelectronics.
WSTS anticipates the world market to grow 5.2 percent to $319 billion in 2014, with mid single-digit percentage growth across most geographical regions and semiconductor product categories, supported by a healthier global economy.
Click on image to enlarge.
WSTS Forecast Summary from the 2012 meeting held in Kobe, Japan, Nov. 13 to 16, 2012
Related links and articles:
www.wsts.org
News articles:
Report: Rising GDP set to boost chip markets
Chip firms ranked by Q4 guidance
Chip market to shrink in 2012, says Gartner
Cowan tips chip market growth for 2013
SIA, WSTS expect flat chip sales in 2012
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SylvieBarak
11/27/2012 8:49 AM EST
Since when is the Chinese economy slowing down? That's news to me. Oh well, I guess these market analysts have to pay the rent somehow....
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peter.clarke
11/27/2012 9:23 AM EST
I think the slow down referred to is the first derivative of growth.
In other words the Chinese rate of economic growth has fallen. Although some say it will now stabilize or even increase again.
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RobDinsmore
11/27/2012 10:21 AM EST
I wish people would use accurate terminology. Decreasing rate of growth is nowhere near slowing down. We shouldn't have to redefine terminology to let people get away with being sloppy. If they mean slowing rate of growth they should say that. What good is an industry organization if they can't produce well worded PR for their reports? If they can't get the English correct why should I trust their analysis?
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Cowan LRA Model
11/27/2012 12:09 PM EST
Hi Peter - the latest Cowan LRA Model's global semiconductor sales growth forecast expectations for 2012 and 2013 are in relatively good agreement with the WSTS's Autumn 2013 forecast numbers released today and summarized in the table above.
The recently updated Cowan LRA Model's results are derived from the September 2012 sales numbers as contained in the WSTS's monthly HBR posted on their website at the beginning of November. In particular, the model is predicting -2.6 percent and +5.2 percent for 2012 and 2013, respectively, versus the WSTS's forecasts of -3.2 percent and +4.5 percent, respectively. The corresponding Cowan LRA Model's sales predictions are $291.76 billion and 307.04 billion for 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Mike Cowan, semi industry market watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales.
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rick.merritt
11/27/2012 10:54 PM EST
Gartner is working up similar numbers, an analyst told me today: 2012 down ~ 4%, 2013 up slightly and more solid growth in 2014.
Bill McLean at IC Insights says 2012 is -1% followed by 2013 at +6%.
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