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sranje
Iniewski - perhaps a good approach is to look at the track record of different ...
iniewski
How accurate are such predictions historically?
Chip market ready for steady rebound
Peter Clarke
1/30/2013 10:46 AM EST
LONDON – The global semiconductor market is set to enjoy long-term growth with a compound annual growth rate of 9 percent over the period 2010 to 2018, according to market research firm Databeans Inc. (Reno, Nevada).
Databeans said that while the recovery would be variable by region - with AsiaPac and the U.S. leading and Europe and Japan lagging – the semiconductor industry will see better growth in 2013 and would carry this momentum into the years to come.
The market is recovering from sluggish demand across all market sectors due to global economic uncertainty, which produced a flat market in 2012. Poor demand through 2012 resulted in a build-up of chip inventories.
Databeans expects that 2013 will see a solid rebound, growing by 7 percent from 2012 reach $313.04 billion global chip sales. Averaging selling prices (ASPs) have stabilized, particularly in memory and demand is coming from the mobile phone and tablet computer sectors for mobile processors, logic ICs and NAND flash memory.
The strongest sector in 2013 is forecast to be the wired communications market, which will grow by 15 percent and reach nearly $32.5 billion. This is attributed to the continued rollout of infrastructure equipment supporting data centers worldwide.
Click on image to enlarge.
Worldwide semiconductor revenue forecast by market segment. Source: Databeans Inc.
Wireless communications growth will from China as domestic handset OEMs including Lenovo, ZTE, and Huawei target lower income individuals with handsets priced at or around 1000 Yuan (about $160). The weakest sector is the computer segment, expected to grow by 4 percent in 2013 to $82.5 billion in semiconductor sales.
Related links and articles:
www.databeans.com
News articles:
Penn keeps predicting chip market growth
Excess chip inventory set to hurt Q1
Intel expects growth in 2013
Databeans said that while the recovery would be variable by region - with AsiaPac and the U.S. leading and Europe and Japan lagging – the semiconductor industry will see better growth in 2013 and would carry this momentum into the years to come.
The market is recovering from sluggish demand across all market sectors due to global economic uncertainty, which produced a flat market in 2012. Poor demand through 2012 resulted in a build-up of chip inventories.
Databeans expects that 2013 will see a solid rebound, growing by 7 percent from 2012 reach $313.04 billion global chip sales. Averaging selling prices (ASPs) have stabilized, particularly in memory and demand is coming from the mobile phone and tablet computer sectors for mobile processors, logic ICs and NAND flash memory.
The strongest sector in 2013 is forecast to be the wired communications market, which will grow by 15 percent and reach nearly $32.5 billion. This is attributed to the continued rollout of infrastructure equipment supporting data centers worldwide.
Click on image to enlarge.
Worldwide semiconductor revenue forecast by market segment. Source: Databeans Inc.
Wireless communications growth will from China as domestic handset OEMs including Lenovo, ZTE, and Huawei target lower income individuals with handsets priced at or around 1000 Yuan (about $160). The weakest sector is the computer segment, expected to grow by 4 percent in 2013 to $82.5 billion in semiconductor sales.
Related links and articles:
www.databeans.com
News articles:
Penn keeps predicting chip market growth
Excess chip inventory set to hurt Q1
Intel expects growth in 2013
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Cowan LRA Model
1/30/2013 1:16 PM EST
Hi Peter – the latest run of the Cowan LRA foreasting model, which is based on the WSTS’s November HBR sales numbers published on Jan 7th, 2013, yielded the following sales and yr-o-yr sales growth numbers for 2012 and 2013: $292.992 billion (-2.2 percent) and $309.244 billion (+5.5 percent), respectively. Therefore, the Cowan LRA Model’s sales growth expectation for 2013 is 1.6 percentage points lower than Databean's forecast of plus 7.1 percent.
Note that 2012's sales and sales growth numbers between our two forecast expectations are in excellent agreement
Note that the WSTS will publish the final (actual) global semiconductor sales result for 2012 at the end of the first week in February. Therefore, stay tuned for my latest 2013's forecast numbers following the posting of the December HBR (Historical Billings Report).
Regards, Mike Cowan (Independent semi industry market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales).
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peter.clarke
1/30/2013 1:36 PM EST
Thanks Mike,
Your comments are always welcome.
Looking to do a small bit of number crunching myself once the WSTS numbers are out.
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iniewski
2/4/2013 1:18 PM EST
How accurate are such predictions historically?
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sranje
2/4/2013 2:14 PM EST
Iniewski - perhaps a good approach is to look at the track record of different forecasters and their postmortem analysis of difference with actual.
For 2012 there was near consensus in January about 7% growth - we ended at 0%
I would give a high mark to IC Insights forecasts. They are strongly based on detailed analyses of economic drivers and what I like they do are their postmortem analyses. Explaining what exactly has changed where and how much it contributed to discrepancy. I find this a high quality and integrity approach.
Re Databeans - they are certainly well respected researchers, eg., in Analog. What I find somewhat lacking are their definitions of what makes any vendor primarily an Analog IC vendor - hence their Analog vendor ranking is somewhat misleading/confusing. But - that is one person opinion
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