Yokohama, Japan - February 2, 2001 - The way Gene Shue sees it, the personal computer of the future will take two very separate directions: faster high-powered computers, and portable computing devices. Shue, executive vice president of First International Computer, Taiwan, was the keynote speaker on the second day of the Asian South Pacific Design Automation Conference.
The common characteristic envisioned by Shue will be connectivity. Computers will be much more highly networked through hardwired connections like cable or fiber optics, or through a wireless medium. Shue noted that available bandwidth for networks is increasing at about twice the rate of computer clocks--doubling in nine months vs. 18 months for semiconductors, according to Moore's law. Shue said that soon the external network will be faster that the internal bus or peripherals, making an interesting situation for the networks and online devices.
Shue predicted that before too long the high-powered computer will have a 2 GHz Intel processor. This clock speed will enable higher speed applications like e-business with flash graphics and high levels of security. Other business applications will include data mining and knowledge management. For the home, the high-speed machine will be used for games, speech recognition, voice-over Internet, and digital video applications. Also, Shue seconded Intel's forecasts that the next-generation PC will feature graphics-intensive functions as the big processor maker optimizes its devices for streaming-data-type functions over other functions like I/O or networking. Shue admitted that the e-business portion is not going to be available for two to four years, and will require significant changes and improvements in networking, infrastructure and capacity in systems, not to mention a large number of people converting to the latest high-speed PCs.
On the other hand, Shue observed that the personal computation devices embodied in PDAs and cell phones already exist. Future portable devices will migrate to anywhere and anytime products with many content-centered functions. The use of smart cards will allow application-specific functionality that would be easily modified at the time of use. And high-bandwidth wireless connectivity will be in the form of CDMA or GSM phone connections and Bluetooth or optical connections for short-range network functions.
Shue predicted that the PC would continue to be a driver for technology in both high- and low-power functions. And, he said, the new economy would be both a beneficiary and technology driver for the development and deployment of computing machines.