Design Con 2015
Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
pmcw
User Rank
Manager
re: Chip sector downgrade 'baseless,' says analyst
pmcw   12/1/2009 3:35:08 AM
NO RATINGS
Nick, You are precisely right; I share your opinion when it comes to most Wall Street analysts. Before selling my company I was in the semiconductor industry for a quarter century. Regards, Paul McWilliams nextinning.com

Nick-e2v
User Rank
Rookie
re: Chip sector downgrade 'baseless,' says analyst
Nick-e2v   11/20/2009 12:33:49 PM
NO RATINGS
Anyhow before taking an advice or acting on a recommendation I always like to check on the credibility of who's giving the advice. And looking at the terrible state in which the investment banking industry have left the economy, one can question comes naturally to mind : What is the credibility of those self-promoted industry experts working for investment banks? Looking at the very recent history of the world's economy. It rather seems that the semiconductor industry actually has better visibility and better control of its financial situation than the banking industry has of its own. Most of us in the semiconductor industry are no beginners when it comes to inventory management i the supply chain, and we do have a good grip on our cost structure, our debts, our risks and opportunities and our revenue growth for the future. Can the same be said about investment banks?

pmcw
User Rank
Manager
re: Chip sector downgrade 'baseless,' says analyst
pmcw   11/20/2009 2:37:26 AM
NO RATINGS
Dylan, I appreciate you quoting me today. With the Dell data now in hand I've made some projections for the State of Tech company set I cover. Together, these companies will produce roughly $650B in revenue this year. My projection for total revenue in the set is 36.4 days, down from 37.8 last quarter, down from 41.2 in Q3 2008 and down from 41.9 in Q3 2007. Q3 2007 is a nice basis here since demand fell off quite sharply starting mid-September 2008. In the semi sector where I track the companies representing about 45% of what the SIA reports as worldwide revenue, days sales in Q3 69.5, down from 75.1 last quarter, down from 81.0 in Q3 2008 and down from 79.3 in Q3 2007. What's interesting here is that there has been a concerted effort during the last year to move towards consignment arrangements (hubbing). This has effectively moved inventory allocations in the semi sector back through the chain to semiconductor companies. While this will prove to be a good move and remove some of the volatility from the system, right now there are a number of part types in short supply due to bottlenecks in package and test. I've not heard reports of terrible, but present to some varying degree. I'm always looking for inventory bubbles and the only one I see now is in LCD drivers (slowing demand in some package and test houses). DRAM prices appear to be softening for December, but no reports of excessive inventory yet. Regards, Paul nextinning.com



Flash Poll
Top Comments of the Week
Like Us on Facebook
EE Times on Twitter
EE Times Twitter Feed

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Max Maxfield

Want to Present a Paper at ESC Boston 2015?
Max Maxfield
8 comments
I tell you, I need more hours in each day. If I was having any more fun, there would have to be two of me to handle it all. For example, I just heard that I'm going to be both a speaker ...

Martin Rowe

No 2014 Punkin Chunkin, What Will You Do?
Martin Rowe
Post a comment
American Thanksgiving is next week, and while some people watch (American) football all day, the real competition on TV has become Punkin Chunkin. But there will be no Punkin Chunkin on TV ...

Rich Quinnell

Making the Grade in Industrial Design
Rich Quinnell
12 comments
As every developer knows, there are the paper specifications for a product design, and then there are the real requirements. The paper specs are dry, bland, and rigidly numeric, making ...

Martin Rowe

Book Review: Controlling Radiated Emissions by Design
Martin Rowe
1 Comment
Controlling Radiated Emissions by Design, Third Edition, by Michel Mardiguian. Contributions by Donald L. Sweeney and Roger Swanberg. List price: $89.99 (e-book), $119 (hardcover).