I come to this thread a month late, but I'll chime in anyway. In your article, you state that Apple should be bolder about diversification and give Google as an example of how to do that. Yet in the last 10 years, Google's ONLY revenue generator has been advertising. Their first "product" still generates 97% of their revenue.
In the same 10 years, Apple has gone from solely a computer company to one that generates substantial revenue from computers, music devices/content and smartphones, with none of those businesses representing more than half the company's total revenue.
I have a hard time buying your arguments when they're founded on such a profound misunderstanding of reality.
As Imodu pointed out, I agree the rivalry building up in the CE market is going to be a big factor for Apple's future. However, one of the reasons why I still bet on Apple is the very fact that many traditional CE vendors have thus far failed to compete against Apple effectively on a new ground -- where impeccable user interface, design, apps and service matter. They are still too slow, too conservative and too bogged down by their legacy products...
The focus of most of this discussion is based on the idea that Apple's legitimacy in the market is coupled with short term stock prices. Apples future ultimately depends on what products it and its competitors make.
Apple is successful because they are the only exclusively premium-priced electronics company that deliver premium products. Until there is another company that is comfortable selling fewer products at higher margins and not trying to undercut the competition, Apple will have plenty of room in a spacious niche.
I have rarely read such a poorly constructed, ill-founded assessment of Apple's position in its markets. It is nearly 5 a.m. where I am and the US stock market is about to close which is the normal time for me to think about sleep!
However, I am so surprised by the poor validity of what you have to say that I will wait till tomorrow to reply properly. I hope you will take the time to read what I say then. I also want to see what Mr. Yoshida has to say before responding. I am not sure what your credentials are but I find your views about Apple in CE and Apple generally to be naive and simplistic.
The mobile market is experiencing an incredible boom right now despite the economy. In this condition, vendors aren't competing so much as they are just trying to feed supply. Competition won't truly come to play until the market is saturated and the only way to gain new customers is to take them away from the competitor.
It's then that we'll see just how healthy Apple's future is.
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