I always take ANY investor analyst recommendations with a huge grain of salt, reason? They all have "an ax to grind", we all have to remember that these poeple ara "mouth pices" for the "smart money" crowd! For all that you know, JP Morgan is sitting on the short side of a trade, and they need to shake and rattle the market! So, we are all well adviced to keep the salt shaker handy!
Rags to riches to rags in a month. That's funny! I must admit that I have little motivation to upgrade my PCs (if you count the two in the garage, the count is currently 8)... There's not really anything that makes me want to jump up and down. I WANT to want a tablet. But my notebook sits on my lap and I don't have to hold up the screen. And I can type. And.... Well, perhaps I will find a good reason to want one... I supposed that if I decide that my PS3 doesn't meet my enterainment requirements, I could talk myself into getting a media pc. Oh, that's right. Already have one... But do I really want to wait minutes to boot up to watch another episode of Lost? I'm thinking that every desktop in my house will eventually get replaced with a laptop. And the fact that you can get full featured laptops for $260 at Fry's (although I would generally not opt for the bottom price point). I expect the rest of the world may not be so saturated with computers. So this bodes well for Microsoft, Intel, and... Uhhh... Seagate?
The reported findings of the JPM "study" are checks of Taiwanese manufacturers. Is is possible that companies are taking their orders elsewhere? Vietnam is coming on line, Foxconn just announced start of manufacturing for HPQ in Turkey. Foxconn has a new factory in China coming online.
Further reason to doubt the story is the FT story from yesterday:
So do your think this indicates an overall pessimistic PC outlook for the upcoming holiday season, or a "cautionary pause" and "wait-and-see" approach? We are now in the "back to school" buying season, which should last for the next few weeks as the various educational systems ramp up for the Fall Semester. If the "back to school season" is soft, does this historically point to a soft holiday season?
Did we really go from boom to bust just in the month of July? The wild gyrations in semiconductor market predictions lately are enough to make one's head spin -- and enough to make one wonder if any of these so-called analysts have a clue.
This will be very interesting to all of us to watch closely as it plays out in the coming weeks. Is this a precursor or a short term event? A number of economic factors indicate that softening demand should have been anticipated, but it does not appear to be be clear yet if that will continue or demand will return. At this point, "back to school" product should already be on the shelves, so we should be looking toward the lead in to the holiday buying season.