Most analysts have very fluid predictions which go with the flow, as it were. They appear to be always correct. However, they are often off the mark because they are like the accountant that was finally hired in the comment above. In early 2009, in Asia, we saw assembly facilities being put in the dark due to no volume. But analysts in the U. S. and some industry associations kept saying things were not that bad. My eyes said one thing. There words, from afar, something else. They need to get on the ground and see what the troops are seeing.
Sure, even I don't know when the downturn comes, as purchaser, we ask for goods from two or three distributors when there is shortages since the mid of last year, so the quantity reflected in manufacturer will be double even more, now we still try to set up safe stock to avoid later shortage, like a Chinese saying “Birds startled by the mere twang of a bowstring”, when consumer market decline, the semiconductor market will be show in later two or three quarters.
The company is seeking an accountant. There comes a guy. They ask him: How much is two plus two? He says four. They say he does not fit. The next candidate is asked the same question, he gives the same answer, and he does not take the job either. Comes the next contender. He is also asked: How much is two plus two? He asks: How much do you need? The company gives him the job.
One says that the semicondutor revenues are looking up and another comes up and says that the IC forecast is to take a hit. Somebody is surely wrong and the trouble with these so called analysts is that there will be one predicting growth and another predicting downturn so someone ends up being correct. So they deserve to be ignored.
Let's see, today is Thursday? Oh, then all signs point to a downturn in semis. If it had been Tuesday, all signs would be pointing to an upturn and we would be discussing what can be done about ridiculously long lead times.
I wonder if there is a pull back going on in PCs and, if so, how much of it may be due to just skittishness about the macroeconomic slowdown attributed to lackluster consumer spending. Sometimes these things seem to be rooted in self-perpetuating moods.
Thanks for your article. Well, I have to agree that the Semiconductor industry has not been a very good place to work over last few years. In the area where I live, there is a semiconductor facility that has layoff employees and the semiconductor program at the local community college ended a few years ago because of low student enrollment. This is firsthand knowledge. It was very painful to end the semiconductor program at the community college because it was very successful during the early years and the students had no problem finding a job. A lot of money was invested into the program. With the closing of the semiconductor program, we started using the semiconductor labs and equipments as part of a summer camp program for elementary and high school students for a few years ago. The students really loved trying on the white suite and going into the clean room. Now, the clean room and all the semiconductor equipments have been removed from the campus. So this article really touches home. Good luck to other semiconductor facilities and employees around the Country. We do need you and you are during a great job.