The forecast for Apple dominance in touchpad marketplace is impressive.
However, Apple ecosystem has also been criticised for being a closed system especially for iPod, iPhone and iPad application developers. Apple puts too many restrictions on third party developers. Apple's intentions may not be malicious because they have come up with innovative products of high quality standards by following this strategy. However, considering the openness of the Web, Apple needs to open up their development environment, and allow even more open source applications to be executable on these devices. This will only help mass scale adoption of these devices around the world. If Apple does not do it, then their competitors are going to do it anyway. It is time that Apple reads the writing on the wall and try to move from a closed system to an open system.
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Apple definitely will be the market leader for some time in the tablet market. They were first to successfully market the concept, so will always be viewed by consumers as the "inventor of the concept". No an unusual position for Apple, but it seems competitors are coming on much more quickly on the iPad than for the iPhone. This may be due to the fact that most of the iPad hardware and software is not "revolutionary enough" to hold off the competition as they did in the past products. I have no doubt that Android and Windows-based systems will be competitive from a hardware and software perspective, but will they have the "marketing power" to sell that to consumers? It should be fun to watch!
For new player to be successful penetrating into the market, apps store and apps development support are very crucial. Google surely will have the muscle to do so, if not better. The most difficult stumbling block is the momentum that Apple has earned and, the consumers perception on the quality of Apple's product. The projected figures are about right unless there is a new factor coming into the picture.
I’m not surprised by this prediction from iSuppli and I believe most iPad owners will agree with me. The iPad has been a game changer and has created an altogether new business segment of tablets. That’s no mean achievement considering that almost all notebook heavyweights including HP, IBM and Toshiba tried their hand at creating such a device.
I have the following good reasons to believe that Apple looks well poised to dominate tablet market through 2012
- It’s already got a fantastic early mover advantage
- When it comes to App Store for tablets, Apple is leaps and bounds ahead of all competitors.
- It will be hard for other companies to replicate the ‘wow’ factor of iPad
- Though people were quick to write-off the iPad as an “entertainment gadget”, the iPad is increasingly being accepted in academic as well as enterprise segments.
- Keith Schaub
The iPad is a tremendous device. I have one and love it, but it's is going to be easy to mimic and OEMs are going to flock to the market space now that it's proven to be viable.
For example, I find it hard to believe Apple's market share will drop only 13% in two years once Google based Android based tablet hits the market. Look at at Android based smartphone market share. In two-three years, it went from introduction to 17% in the much more crowded and mature smartphone market. If the rumors are correct about Google releasing tablet this fall, the Google Tablet and it's follow ons from other OEMs that Google will enable, will easily have %25 percent of the market, given it's ecosystem and market place exists today and the installed base of android smartphone users who will want a android based tablet.
@CamilleK- ISuppli does not spell out specifically what other products it lumps into the tablet category, but for what it's worth, this is the text of the iSuppli news release:
"The iPad will account for an overwhelming 74.1 percent of global tablet shipments in 2010, with the remaining 25.9 percent consisting of a mix of older PC-type tablet products and competitive slates."
That doesn't sound like Kindle to me, but I could be wrong. And either way, your question is a valid one. Obviously I think we have to assume that whatever else is in this category, it doesn't have the functionality of iPad because at this point nothing does.
It's interesting to see these numbers. Not so long ago, there were a number of articles & opinions on why iPad just isn't the right product and will be a failure. The main reason for this feeling was that the iPad doesn't offer anything new (as against iPhone which did offer Touch & gesture recognition as new features). Apple seems to be able to create new markets with its products. Any number of complaints against its products (for example lack of multi-tasking) doesn't seem to deter its success.
I'd like to see some good demographic and usage data for the iPad. The product will, in a sense, have a lot of competition very soon, but it won't be as formidable as it might seem on the surface. My hunch is that most of the tablet makers that want to compete with the iPad will be missing the mark. They'll be looking at their product as a better replacement for a mini notebook than is the iPad. The genius of Apple isn't in raw hardware. It's in understanding the consumer. From what I can see, the iPad is really suited and will probably be used in much different ways than are notebooks and other conventional computers. By chasing a new market while the other companies that don't quite get it squabble against each other in the old market, Apple keeps that "competition" less than relevant.
I am curious to hear what is defined as the Tablet market, given the 74% share of the iPad (as opposed to an even higher number), I am tempted to think it includes the Kindle type readers which may not be a good comparison since they are limited in features. Having said that, I think there will be added attention to creating ecosystems similar to the app store (as Alexander points out) and there-in lies the opportunity for differentiation by one-upping with a super mart of apps, video, audio, subscriptions, book readers and even magazine subscriptions. I just read Apple announced a press event on September 1 so Apple looks to be always a step ahead in expanding offerings and products.
With iPad, Apple has created new market segment which they envisaged in around 1993 with conceptually similar product. However, as the HP/Agilent slogan mentions “there is always better way”. In near future, a company will build technically better product with few unique features and may have novice way of offering new applications that rivals similar services from Apple. There is always scope to find and serve niche market area. We hope to see more competition and better products then Apple at much lower price.