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old account Frank Eory
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re: Analyst: IC business back on track in July
old account Frank Eory   8/30/2010 8:23:50 PM
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Closely related to Economics, which is the science of explaining tomorrow why the predictions you made yesterday didn't come true today :)

eewiz
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CEO
re: Analyst: IC business back on track in July
eewiz   8/30/2010 7:51:55 PM
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Reminds me of what my friend used to say. "An analyst's job is to analyze & predict the future events and then later give explanations why the predictions werent accurate"

Cowan LRA Model
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re: Analyst: IC business back on track in July
Cowan LRA Model   8/30/2010 2:53:55 PM
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Hi Mark - noticed that you made the minor corrections to your article that I highlighted. Also based upon the SIA's just released July 2010 GSR (Global Sales Report) looks like Bruce Diesen's forecast was pretty much "spot on." The just posted 3MMA (3 Month Moving Avg.) sales number for July 2010 came in at $25.243 billion compared to Bruce's forecast estimate of $25.2 billion. By the way, employing this global S/C sales result the latest preliminary global sales forecast estimate for 2010 "kicked up" from last month's Cowan LRA Model's prediction (of $303.9 billion) to $305.7 billion which equates to a yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimate of 35.1% compared to last month's forecast of 34.3%. This uptick in monthly sales reflects the stronger sales result for July than the model forecasted last month. This is good news based upon some of the "pessimism" that has been reported over the last month by a range of companies reporting their recent quarter's financials as well as a number of industry analysts. However, one should watch next month's sales number to see which direction it takes as confirmation that the industry might be healthier than some have reported. Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst (and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide S/C sales)

greenpattern
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Rookie
re: Analyst: IC business back on track in July
greenpattern   8/30/2010 8:20:17 AM
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Yes, a lot of forecasts reported in media are effectively made up.

BalaLak
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Rookie
re: Analyst: IC business back on track in July
BalaLak   8/30/2010 8:17:14 AM
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First I read "ISuppli again raises semiconductor forecast", then came across "Intel cuts sales target on weak PC sales" and now this (all on EETimes). Am I confused or is there a clear pattern to this?

Cowan LRA Model
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Manager
re: Analyst: IC business back on track in July
Cowan LRA Model   8/27/2010 1:17:06 AM
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Hi Mark - just wanted to share with you the results of last month's run of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global S/C sales regarding the model's view of July's 3MMA sales estimate which came in at $24.849 billion. This result is slightly less than Diesen's projected sales estimate of $25.2 billion you quoted. The model's forecasted actual sales estimate for July is $23.388 billion. Details of the model's results for last month can be found at http://wp.me/p4w7N-1za. Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst (and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecast global S/C sales)



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