By 2015, two more nodes would have passed without new lithography wavelength. The ROI for any NGL would be negative. At least Nikon and Canon have successul camera business, and Nikon also has LCD market.
This is the last time we should take Nomura seriously. While it is true ASML has headstart on EUVL tool, that does not ensure EUV will happen. The resists and the mask supply, and the involved defect inspection, also have to be in place. DPT has actually been used by Micron and Samsung for some time, without damage to their financial reports. I expect a natural migration to MPT.
In fact, currently the ASML NXE 3300 tools cannot even commit to 21 nm or less, and the throughput is still not meeting the goals.
Most EUV supporters do not understand EUV, how it works, while the rest hope no one else finds out.
If so much rests on EUV, the community should study how it works, e.g., why the photon energy matters.
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