These contradicting forecasts should not come as a surprise to us. Economic forecasts are all the over the place lately due to the uncertainty over credit, sovereign debts etc. It is psychological more than anything else at this stage I should think. With time, and barring a major sovereign debt crisis or big corporation failure, things should start to look up in a year or two.
I can't imagine the industry slowing down now that the US elections are over and it looks like a more business friendly environment will begin with the new congress. This should translate into growth and with that sales should increase. Those that are employed will at some point start buying again. They have held off some purchases for awhile waiting to see how the election turned out. Now they may start to feel better about job futures and this may kick up the overall outlooks. What does everyone else think?
Business friendly probably has little to do with it. Disposable income is the name of the game in the USA. W/O demand, folks with jobs working in the USA, things will be tight. Offshore that is a different market, if you are watching the numbers that is the growth area. But there is already a dark cloud, look at memory prices, they are tumbling. Same old cycle?
SIA discussing average selling prices or capacity forecast is called antitrust or price fixing because SIA is an organization of competitor semiconductor companies. SIA SHOULD NOT be discussing prices or capacity.