would like to see a piechart of growth in different sectors (semiconductor) to have a better knowledge. I also do not understand why there is so much spread in predictions from different sources. I believe most of them would use the same market data to reach a conclusion.
Hi Dylan (again) - I would like to point out that all the sales growth forecast estimates quoted will have to be "adjusted" since they are based upon forecasts for BOTH 2010 and 2011.
The needed "adjustment" will obviously be a function of what the final 2010 sales result will be. This sales number will not be finalized until the first week in Feb 2011 when the WSTS will post (on its website, http://www.wsts.org/) BOTH the December 2010 sales number and the final month-by-month results for the other 11 months of 2010. Consequently, the needed "adjustments" to each forecaster's 2011 prediction will vary depending on their assumed forecast sales number for 2010. Therefore, the better their 2010 sales forecast prediction is the smaller the "adjustment" needed to their respective 2011 sales growth forecast estimate.
I would love to see the predictions for 2011 in regards to :
you can be "wrong" on either one one and you can still be "right" when combining both.
From now on you research gurus predict ASP as well as units -
we need to raise the bar for the research gurus.
Obviously units will dominate 2011 while ASP "ruled" 2010
My forecast is 9% growth for the semiconductor market in 2011, as I stated in my October newsletter (www.semiconductorintelligence.com)
Continued recovery in the worldwide economy and steady demand for electronics will keep the 2010 boom from turning into a bust.
Hi Dylan - I notice that you updated the SIA's 2011 sales growth with a new box (showing +6% rather than the +3.4% number you originally posted) BUT you did not delete the original percentage box from the listing
Mike Cowan, indedpendent semi-industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model.