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wilber_xbox
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re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
wilber_xbox   12/21/2010 12:21:29 AM
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would like to see a piechart of growth in different sectors (semiconductor) to have a better knowledge. I also do not understand why there is so much spread in predictions from different sources. I believe most of them would use the same market data to reach a conclusion.

Cowan LRA Model
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Manager
re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
Cowan LRA Model   12/20/2010 10:03:38 PM
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Hi Dylan (again) - I would like to point out that all the sales growth forecast estimates quoted will have to be "adjusted" since they are based upon forecasts for BOTH 2010 and 2011. The needed "adjustment" will obviously be a function of what the final 2010 sales result will be. This sales number will not be finalized until the first week in Feb 2011 when the WSTS will post (on its website, http://www.wsts.org/) BOTH the December 2010 sales number and the final month-by-month results for the other 11 months of 2010. Consequently, the needed "adjustments" to each forecaster's 2011 prediction will vary depending on their assumed forecast sales number for 2010. Therefore, the better their 2010 sales forecast prediction is the smaller the "adjustment" needed to their respective 2011 sales growth forecast estimate. Mike C.

the_floating_ gate
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Rookie
re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
the_floating_ gate   12/15/2010 5:38:13 AM
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I would love to see the predictions for 2011 in regards to : unit growth and ASP you can be "wrong" on either one one and you can still be "right" when combining both. From now on you research gurus predict ASP as well as units - we need to raise the bar for the research gurus. Obviously units will dominate 2011 while ASP "ruled" 2010

mcgrathdylan
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Blogger
re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
mcgrathdylan   12/14/2010 11:42:20 PM
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Thanks for pointing this out Mike. I've remedied the issue.

Bill J SCIQ
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Rookie
re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
Bill J SCIQ   12/14/2010 9:27:52 PM
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My forecast is 9% growth for the semiconductor market in 2011, as I stated in my October newsletter (www.semiconductorintelligence.com) Continued recovery in the worldwide economy and steady demand for electronics will keep the 2010 boom from turning into a bust.

Cowan LRA Model
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Manager
re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
Cowan LRA Model   12/14/2010 5:49:12 PM
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Hi Dylan - I notice that you updated the SIA's 2011 sales growth with a new box (showing +6% rather than the +3.4% number you originally posted) BUT you did not delete the original percentage box from the listing Mike Cowan, indedpendent semi-industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

daleste
User Rank
CEO
re: What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
daleste   12/14/2010 5:30:59 PM
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That is big spread on the guesses. The good thing is that no one is saying it will be negative. I hope for the sake of our economy, that it will come it at the high end.



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