Malcolm Penn is around. I was with him this morning at a meeting of Silicon Southwest in Bristol. He is now predicting 2011 will be a 1 percent growth year and that 2012 COULD be a bounce year showing 20 percent growth.
As we approach the end of 2011, little has been heard from our gypsy friend Malcolm Penn who ran away from his fortune telling home to join the test company circus. No word yet if he's past the test there or not, all we know is that he has fallen very silent about his 2011 growth prediction of 6% being off by over 300%! Perhaps he should take his crystal ball to work one day and have it "tested".
Hey! think of analysts as your local weatherman who can couch computer modeling observations with such soft adjectives as mild, sunny, humid, slushy and so forth. You don't get anxious about bad forecasts unless your life depended on it, right? So with analysts...a little down, a little up; it's all based more on human emotions and less on reasoning. I predict that somewhere there is a silver lining in an analyst's cloud.
You've got it.
Engineers and market researchers work to different rules. Mainly because engineers stick to predictable linear systems and market researchers prognosticate over chaotic, and difficult to measure data.
But if there was ever a market researcher with the accuracy of an engineer he or she would not be in business for long. They would clean up on the world's stock exchanges and future's markets and retire.