The generalized Moore's Law is really about processing power. I believe it is essential to keep pushing up processing power exponentially. Every order of magnitude increase brings new s/w capabilities into play. I started work when the Cray 1 supercomputer was king, at $10m (back when that was a lot of money). Now an iPhone would thrash it. That's the progress I want to continue.
I wish people would just stop talking about Moore's Law. I have been hearing about it all my professional life (and I am not that young) and most of it is just too repetitive. And it is not even a law! (I am OK with Ohm's law) but a business observation. Finally, it no longer works. Can we talk about something else? Like 3D interconnects that improve performance. Without to resorting to the old Moore's Law pls. Just accept that microprocessors speeds do not increase anymore...Kris
Actually, what killed wafer-scale integration is yield. And that's one of the main reasons it is still dead.
Going into 3D opens up interesting new options to deal with yield issues but, in any case, 3D monolithic stacking inherently reduces the chip net area because of reduced average wire length and need of repeaters. So it will tend to help yield assuming similar defect rates.
We are factors of billions, if not trillions, away from theoretical physical limits. The rest is merely engineering:-)
However, if Moore's Law were to stop so would much of the s/w industry innovations. We are just getting to the point where natural language understanding is possible - but only on supercomputers. We need the Law to continue for the next 20 years to make that economical for everyone.
As for 3D etc, whatever happened to wafer scale computing? It sounds a lot easier than 3D.
If Moore's law has followed the exponential growth indicated by the law of accelerating returns, we shouldn't assume and depend on advancement continuing at that pace forever. At some point, the curve reverses and we end up moving to a point of diminishing returns. (until the next game-changing breakthrough)
It's already happening if you consider clock speed. Until recently, clock speeds were increasing as fast as anything else described by Moore's law, but they have essentially leveled out. It happened with aircraft speed, with automobile horse power and it will happen with chip density and all other aspects of semiconductors. At that point, we'll have to adapt to a world of incremental improvements rather than one of constant dramatic improvement.
Moore's Law is a business visualization tool, not a business plan in and of itself. It was relevant when more computing power was significant to users, but that is not really the case any more. The chip industry has got to figure out what is important to users for the next decade rather than blindly following linear thinking (even linear thinking along an exponential curve). 3D stacking is a good tool, but you have to do something useful with it.
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