SSD's seems to be too costly to replace the HDD's at this moment. But there is also advantages which will be considered only if the prices comes down. Now a days everyone talks about cost before anything else. But once the price comes down there will a huge surge in the NAND demand.
OneNAND is being used to replace NOR for XiP already. It is NAND with SRAM cache buffer. But it could have a prohibitive cache miss penalty. With major NOR makers already investigating alternatives such as PCM, their sense of future for NOR is questionable.
I disagree. While NAND has already caught up with NOR for bootloading, it doesn't support execute-in-place (XIP) (its architecture inherently doesn't support it). But, I do not know enough about how big a deal XIP is. Maybe someone can comment on that.
"but most likely triple because all the Macbook are now SSD based." Macbook & Macbook Pros still ships with HDD as the default option. To replace a 500GB HDD with 512GB SSD , Apple charges ~1500 US$ in addition to the normal costs. Unless the prices drop to reasonable levels, I dont see Apple Mac business being a driver for the NAND industry. But ofcourse all the iDevices can help triple the NAND usage.
On 5, Please dont count on Toshiba's tablet business. They have recently released an Android tablet "folio 100" and stopped sales because of the high return rates.
I think to rely on analysts for directions in semiconductor industry investment is very dangerous, as there are too few of them to have any peer review to keep them in line. I have noted that Nomura and Barclays have been particularly careless. It probably speaks more that few analysts have considered it safe to focus on semiconductors. With too much focus on cost instead of innovation out of the infrastructure box, the industry has become a larger investment risk than before.
I am looking forward to the increase in SSD usage and the corresponding lowering of the cost. I have seen desktop systems using a combination of SSD and HD storage with increased performance (at a cost premium). Can't wait to see what 2011 will bring!
Apple effect caught my eye and attention. By 2011 all the Macbook will be SSD based, which means other notebook will soon make a transition to the SSD memory due to advantages of lower noise, better speed, less wear-tear etc.
I knew the main hurdle to switch to SSD memory was cost. Quoting trend 3: Samsung: Leader, follower: price at the 27-nm node will be 35% lower, it is still way expensive than hard-drive. How much will be prices will be lowered in 2011?