Hi Baolt - thanks for your interest in my forecast results gleamed from the Cowan LRA forecasting model.
I run my linear regression forecasting model EACH month immediately following the WSTS's release of their "actual" sales result. Consequently, my forecast numbers do not sit still but "evolve" as the year plays out. My previous FIVE monthly forecast estimates for 2010 were 34.3%, 35.1%, 34.9%, 33.7%, 33.1%, compared to the latest sales growth expectation of 32.2% cited above.
Relative to 2011's sales growth forecast estimate this month's expectation is 5.3%. Again this number will likewise evolve as 2011 plays out month by month.
@Mike more or less '10 global sales results are cleared, time for everybody to compare. Since ur latest forecast update are we still at the same level?(if i am not remembering wrong it was %32)
Also what would be prediction for '11? i am keen to hear from u.
Hi Peter - the latest (and last) Cowan LRA Model run update for year 2010 sales and sales growth forecast estimates employing WSTS's November "actual" chip sales yields $299.1 billion and 32.2 percent, respectively, which is in pretty good agreement with your last quoted result above albeit slightly lower.
The model's latest expectation for 4Q10 is $76.7 billion which results in a 2.5 percent sequential sales drop compared to a revised (from previous month's publication) 3Q10 sales of $78.6 billion.
Stay tuned for December's result and thus the year 2010 sales number (expected Feb 1st or 2nd, 2011) for the final accounting for 2010's global semiconductor sales and sales growth stats.
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