I think that in the long term the winners will be Apple and Google. I can see Android/ARM expanding to rival Windows at the expense of MS and Intel. RIM will not have the momentum or resources to compete.
There is always scope for more innovation in the iPAD type of product line. However, it is missed by major organization except Apple. Apple has quit nessence for introducing more and more innovations. By the time RIM introduces its product, new version of iPAD will be available and will be much more advanced in all aspect. RIM may have difficult time.
iPad will take schools and homes by storm while the RIM tablet will be the enterprise workhorse. The only other contender that I can see making inroads is the tablet from Cisco. It should be an interesting year with consumable content tablets at home/play fighting it out with paper notebook replacements in the office.
Don, that had to hurt. Better keep your head down--your fellow Canadians may be outraged. Not to disagree with your rather sound arguments, but I must add that I just got a brief demo of the PlayBack and (for whatever it's worth), it is pretty cool. The marketing guys really emphasize it's ability to run apps simultaneously rather than freezing the apps not in immediate use. On the other hand, there are literally dozens of these tablets here at CES and I think it's going to take a while to sort the winners from the losers (not to mention overwhelm consumers).