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mark.lapedus
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re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
mark.lapedus   1/19/2011 5:57:00 PM
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Dean Freeman, an analyst with Gartner, sees foundry oversupply in 2012. HSBC sees late 2011. If demand softens, watch out! (Sorry for the headline Dan. I will try harder.)

sranje
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Manager
re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
sranje   1/12/2011 8:50:40 PM
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Mark, Dan is correct. Plus - there is an interesting angle - DRAM oversupply (and resulting low price) tends to open new applications - this will drive logic ICs... An important question is - just how much will TSMC's revenues grow in 2011? Do we hear 20%+ -- 2011 looks like another double-digit IC growth year.

krisi
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CEO
re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
krisi   1/12/2011 6:26:13 PM
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Glut in 2011??? We just had a boom in 2010 with foundry capacity being used at 110%. This makes little sense. Once you buy the equipment it takes a while to have it installed and have it running. Maybe in 2013...Kris

ScottenJ
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re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
ScottenJ   1/12/2011 3:35:22 PM
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I agree with Daniel. I have a detailed capacity demand forecast model I run and factoring in increased capacity next year I expect utilization to dip below 90% in Q1 due to seasonal factors and then spend the year of the year in the mid-nineties.

dnenni
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re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
dnenni   1/12/2011 6:46:09 AM
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I don't see how 2011 CAPEX's translate to a foundry capacity glut in 2011. 2-3 years from now maybe but not immediately after the announcement. That is a horrible title Mark.

Bhola_#1
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Rookie
re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
Bhola_#1   1/12/2011 1:00:45 AM
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Does foundry plays a big role in company profit margin?

Warren3
User Rank
CEO
re: Foundry capacity glut seen in '11
Warren3   1/11/2011 9:54:58 PM
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GF's capex plans are still only 2/3 of TSMC's; interesting will be if/how Samsung responds.



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