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resistion
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
resistion   2/25/2011 8:56:43 AM
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You can see my assumptions, clearly I was going for ball park, looks I was not too far off. $20 billion is still around 3 fabs (or not even, there is an 8.9 billion price tag reported by Toshiba), so I doubt it would help to have everyone rush at once.

mark.lapedus
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
mark.lapedus   2/25/2011 6:11:43 AM
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Hi NAND_analyst! Send me your forecast on NAND. I will edit and post it. I will post other forecasts from analysts as well. I ALWAYS welcome different points of view. (It just so happen I ran into Jim at ISSCC. He had the guts to make a forecast-AND CALL A DOWNTURN.) Just send your forecasts to the following address: mark.lapedus@ubm.com

mark.lapedus
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
mark.lapedus   2/24/2011 11:36:26 PM
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Hi NAND_analyst! Send me your forecast on NAND. I will edit and post it. I will post other forecasts from analysts as well. I always welcome different points of view. (It just so happen I ran into Jim at ISSCC.) Just send your forecast to: mark.lapedus@ubm.com

Duane Benson
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
Duane Benson   2/24/2011 11:28:24 PM
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Another missing point in this article is the "tipping point." Currently, SSDs are being adopted incrementally, in more of an evolutionary transition. They will continue to slowly grow in popularity and adoption until the market "collapses" and prices dive for the ground. That's the tipping point. From then on, the transition from HDDs to SSDs will leap into revolutionary speed. The entire equation of supply / demand and growth capacity will change at that point and every bit of current research data on the industry will be rendered obsolete.

NAND_analyst
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
NAND_analyst   2/24/2011 11:08:21 PM
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A market of $14b, and big enough for only 2 fabs, huh? Funny, there was close to $20b of revenue for NAND vendors in 2010, and that doesn't include controllers, which are key for NAND. It is hard to take your post seriously.

resistion
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
resistion   2/24/2011 3:18:42 PM
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The world population is ~7 billion, and if 10% each bought $20 of NAND in the year, that is only $14 billion market, which is enough for maybe two NAND fabs. So it could be hard to justify fabs.

jaybus0
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
jaybus0   2/24/2011 12:41:16 PM
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Even if it does affect downward pressure on the price, NAND will still make money by selling in greater quantities. The demise of NAND flash will more likely be that it is made obsolete by memristors or some other superior technology, meaning it will be profitable for some time to come.

JJB
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
JJB   2/24/2011 2:15:45 AM
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The 60% is by mid 2012 if I remember correctly.

JJB
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
JJB   2/24/2011 12:05:32 AM
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In a discussion I had with Jim Handy he mentioned a 60% decline. The 40% number was likely a misquote. Jim does his homework and I would take his word on this. The forecast is definitely in line with past price collapses for NAND Flash.

Code Monkey
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re: Analyst: NAND market to 'collapse'
Code Monkey   2/23/2011 10:07:48 PM
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How many consumers are going to say "Gee, I have plenty of flash in my iPod or iPad"? They will always want more, and the price drop will allow manufacturers to give it to them.

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