These predictions always amaze me. We know that the industry is cyclic, so we can expect another downturn in two to three years, so they will probably be right. The amount of manufacturing capacity may not be the cause of the cycle. It seems to be more of a result.
I have to agree with you there. It seems that these predictions are based entirely on expected capacity, with no regard for macroeconomic conditions or demand for automobiles, consumer electronics, etc.
I wonder what if any effect the overall world economy has (or should have) on the multi-year forecasts? While I do not expect the next great gadget around the corner, what would that next "got to have it" product do to the projected or realized growth numbers? If there was a strong need for sdram or arm devices that was fueled by a set-top box like production numbers device wouldn't have a profound impact on ASP and growth? This article reads like: the industry is cyclical and that trend will continue..