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Larry Tsai
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re: MEMS market for consumer apps to explode this year
Larry Tsai   4/22/2011 10:10:50 AM
When developing a model (linear/nonlinear)for demand forecast based on historical data, we must assume the calibrated parameters will not be changed in the future and this is impossible in a changing world !

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re: MEMS market for consumer apps to explode this year
kdboyce   4/13/2011 6:23:35 AM
Don't forget that iSuppli and similar research firms are in business to sell subscribers and others the full report. Many times the 'teaser' data is presented to lure in more buyers. If you really want to know, buy the report. But remember, a forecast is just a forecast, and is good only at the time it was made. With a base data point and Excel, you can do as well :=). The key value of research data clearly lies in what is historically true (e.g. past performance) and in trends that can be verified using alternative sources. Quarterly updates are needed to see if everything is going according to original forecasts (they don't) and whether the trend is still correct.

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re: MEMS market for consumer apps to explode this year
nicolas.mokhoff   4/12/2011 4:28:42 PM
lifewingmate and VincePG: we have added two charts; they may shed more light on the actual numbers.

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re: MEMS market for consumer apps to explode this year
lifewingmate   4/12/2011 3:26:32 AM
I agree with VincePG that this article would have been easier to follow if it presented a graph with year-on-year growth. The value of the article would have been heightened if the descriptions detailed all of the factors contributing to this large growth. How did they earn what they earned? In addition, were there any other analysts backing the report? What was the report based on? Also, the author could write about the significance of IHS iSuppli as a market research firm. We have to be careful of reports claiming such high growth when there are environmental, legal, and other unforeseen factors at play. Finally, having lists to describe all of the types of devices would be easier to scan than having them scattered in sentences throughout. However, if these projections are indeed accurate and realistic, then I can't wait to see the actual growth rates!

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re: MEMS market for consumer apps to explode this year
VincePG   4/11/2011 11:57:40 PM
This article is very confusing. Why don't they just publish the revenue numbers for each segment instead of this confusing array of percentages and multiples? 2010 177.6M, 2011 457.3M, 2.6 times growth ok. 2014 $1.4B, 45% Compounded from 2011 to 2014, ok Established MEMS 10% growth 2011-2012, ok New MEMS triple digits growth? Need to calculate New CE&Mobile MEMS 31% to 62% growth from 2012-14 New CE&Mobile 39.5% share by 2014 so much less today. If the whole market is growing at 45% and the 70% share is only growing at 10%, do we presume that New CE&Mobile is growing at 122%? If 80% share is growing at 10% then New CE&Mobilie growing at 167% Why don't they just state the number?

As data rates begin to move beyond 25 Gbps channels, new problems arise. Getting to 50 Gbps channels might not be possible with the traditional NRZ (2-level) signaling. PAM4 lets data rates double with only a small increase in channel bandwidth by sending two bits per symbol. But, it brings new measurement and analysis problems. Signal integrity sage Ransom Stephens will explain how PAM4 differs from NRZ and what to expect in design, measurement, and signal analysis.

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