multigate is great, but IBM/AMD/TSMC are surely quite close to production as well. since everyone will have 3d/multigate in about the same timescale, including foundries producing ARM, it's hard to see how this gives Intel any significant advantage. after all, ARM has a _design_ advantage in performance-for-power, which Intel can't catch up with via a transient fab upgrade...
Says Who?? IBM/GF/TSMC etc are just starting their 32/28nm and then they indicated that they would be ready with 3D transistors at 14 nm node. So they have to go through a 22/20 nm node in between before they get there. Intel has atleast a 3-4 year advantage if not more.
Also ARM architecture is inherently more power efficient since it is designed that way (low power with commensurate performance hit). They are successful because they can do an SoC (the whole ecosystem) better than Intel currently does. So ARM should be very concerned by this.... not that they cannot compete but Intel now is in the same power envelope and has atleast a 2X power advantage on the core side. Whether Intel can execute to the whole SoC part is the question. They did acquire pieces (like comms with Infinieon and graphics) in the last year or so. The space is now really interesting.
TSMC Chairman Morris Chang said at the meeting in the first quarter of France, said TSMC 28 nanometer low-power (LP) process and high performance (HP) process reliability verification operations have been completed, which means that the company's 28 Chennai M the mass production process is no longer any obstacles the road, in the TSMC advanced process of development, is a very important milestone. -------- originally clamored for so many years of 28NM, production does not
TSMC not IBM/GF (even more behind) can only achieve Intel's 45nm high k/metal gate specs. Not to mention intel's 2nd generation high k/metal gate spec. So we are talking 2 generation gap. 3D FINFET is a brandnew design flow, I am wondering whether design community is ready to handle such technology.
Intel's real threat is Microsoft's decision to offer Windows 8 on an Arm platform. They can respond to this in 3 ways:
1. Advance the x86 product such that Arm is an unattractive platform for Windows.
2. License Arm.
3. 1 & 2
Clearly #1 is the more profitable option. #2 is a good backup plan after making #1 a success. The tri-gate technology is a discontinuity in technology, design tools and design expertise. Intel will have a jump of several years just due to design tools and design expertise alone. They may have to concede some of the low-end mobile market but they are going to fight for the high-end performance market.
Trigate was invented in 1995:
"Quantum-wire effects in thin and narrow SOI MOSFETs", X. Baie, IEEE International SOI Conference, pp. 66-67, 1995
"A silicon-on-insulator quantum wire", X. Baie, Solid-State Electronics, Vol. 39, pp. 49-51, 1996
There exists a book on multigate (trigate) transistors: "FinFETs and Other Multi-Gate Transistors", J.P. Colinge (Ed.), Springer, 350 pages, November 2007 (ISBN: 978-0-387-71751-7)