I agree with Clarke. China may be able to come up a new architecture. However, they will need time to develop the leading edge manufacturing process.
The trend of ARM is happening. If the rumor, http://www.eetimes.com/message-board/other/4215788/Rumor-of-Apple-replacing-Intel-with-ARM is true, the percentage growth may even be higher.
I think you could be right.
Although China came up with a China-MIPS called Godson or Loongson in the middle of the last decade. And that effort, while technically successful, does not seem to have been so commercially.
China does not yet have the manufacturing capability to get to the leading edge and challenge Intel, ARM but there are plenty of foundries outside China willing to lend a hand
Hmm... actually, during the period 2011-2015, the Chinese could come up with some kind of "Chintel processor", with comparable performance to Intel processors, not compatible, running Android, Win, ... and at a fraction of the price. In such case the market shares could change a lot ...