I should have added, something like what happened to the SLR camera market in the 1980s, when the quite decent all-auto compact cameras came out.
These less capable cameras were way better than previous box cameras, they were perhaps more of what most amateurs really wanted, and they made a huge dent in the SLR market. But still now, SLRs do exist. Hard to beat for performance and flexibility.
Whatever the market forecasters tell us, I think the only thing that makes sense is to try to figure why.
Initially, the desktop PC was all there was, and it was used as the universal platform for Internet access. But now there are specialized, less capable platforms, like the tablets and smartphones, that are perhaps more in line with what the average user really needed from the start.
So the Internet access platform market cannot help but become fractured, and the original PC platform is bound to become less prevalent overall. Doesn't seem surprising, for a mature product in a basically saturated market (developed countries).
BTW, I must have missed this yesterday, but apparently Intel said it's sticking to it's guidance after the IDC numbers came out. This is from a report by JP Morgan analyst Christopher Danely: "Yesterday, Intel reaffirmed its prior 2Q11 guidance in an email to Barron’s after IDC lowered its 2011 YoY PC unit growth forecast from up 7.1% to up 4.2%. Intel reiterated its previous revenue guidance range of $12.3-13.3 billion (down 4% to up 4% QoQ), with gross margins of 61.0% plus or minus 200 basis points."
I think some market watchers have also cut tablet forecasts after iPad alikes started stacking up on shelves. I suspect tablets will steal more notebook/PC share than netbooks did and peak at higher volume levels. But right now its still hard to tell what is off base as hype, denial or sheer guesswork. Exciting times!
"IDC (Framingham, Mass.) said its analysts expect the PC market to rebound and grow faster in 2012. The firm said it expects the market to grow between 10 and 11 percent each year between 2012 and 2015. "
Now why is that? DUH LOL
Looks like Intel capex is right on the money -
give me a break - Me thinks the "experts" have a hard time to figure out emerging markets
All year the market research houses have been steadily cutting expectations for PC shipments, but Intel keeps saying it sees "low double digit growth." Who is right? Or do we think Intel will eventually cut its own PC forecast?