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Cowan LRA Model
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re: SIA sees mediocre semiconductor sales ahead
Cowan LRA Model   7/6/2011 7:57:17 PM
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Hi Nicolas - employing the latest May (actual) sales number ($23.494 billion) released yesterday (7-05-11) by the WSTS and "plugging" it into the Cowan LRA forecasting model yields an updated 2011 sales forecast estimate of $318.391 billion. This, in turn, results in a sales growth rate forecast estimate for 2011 of 6.7%. This latest sales growth rate forecast estimate is lower than last month's forecasted estimate of 8.0% but higher than the SIA/WSTS's 2011 growth expectation of 5.4%. Remember that the Cowan LRA model is updated each month immediately after the monthly sales number is released on the WSTS's website. In this way the model is using the latest, monthly industry sales result to project the yearly sales and sales growth forecast prediction. Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semi sales.



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