Most of these predictions end up falling apart. There is the black swam like the Japanese earthquake. The same time we see growth, IC Insights saw decline. So, it is all about wishy opinion. There is no hard science here.
Sufia, one needs to make a distinction that what Dr. Rhines is saying may hold true for memory & logic products and the foundries making them. It doesn't seem to apply in case of MEMS products of which a majority are IDM's.
I am not convinced on TAM shrinking next year in the Semi market (excluding MEMS, of course!).
Wally is commenting on the general health of the semiconductor industry and is implying that higher capacities mean lower utilization until the more demand will fill that gap.
But all that depends on the economic growth in the coming year which going by current trends is dull.