Hi Peter (and Bruce) - as gleamed from the latest run of the Cowan LRA forecasting model, July 2011's "actual" sales forecast expectation is $24.410 billion. This would correspond to a July 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $25.007 billion.
This assumes no (or very minor) sales revisions to either May or June's published "actual" sales numbers as part of the WSTS's July HBR (Historical Billings Report) relative to June 2011's HBR published early last month.
Consequently, the Cowan LRA Model's July 3MMA sales forecast is slightly more bullish compared to Bruce Diesen's prediction of $24.68 billion as quoted above.
Additionally the model's latest 2011 sales growth forecast at 5.0 percent is likewise slightly more bullish than Diesen's latest expectation of 4 percent.
The WSTS is expected to post its July 2011 HBR the beginning of next week. Therefore, stay tuned for the soon to-be-updated results based upon July 2011's "actual" sales numbers.
Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting (each month) global semi sales.