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mcgrathdylan
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re: Reading the tea leaves in a changing semi market
mcgrathdylan   10/4/2011 9:18:37 PM
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Thanks for the update, Mike.

Cowan LRA Model
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re: Reading the tea leaves in a changing semi market
Cowan LRA Model   10/4/2011 9:04:33 PM
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Hi Dylan - the WSTS just posted August's HBR on its website today (10-04-11). Therefore, I have "dusted off" the tea leaves by rerunning the model using August's (actual) sales number (of $24.216 billion) with the following result: 2011 full year sales forecast estimate came in at $310.0 billion which is down from last month's prediction of $313.2 billion. This latest sales forecast update corresponds to a 2011 sales growth forecast estimate of 3.9 percent which decreased from last month's sales growth forecast of 5.0 percent. Consequently the latest model run points to a downward trend compared to its past monthly forecast expectations. Moreover, 2012's sales forecast estimate also dropped to $335.6 billion from last month's $339.4 billion projection. Mike C. (Independent semi industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA forecast model)



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