I believe today's business reality is that electronics demand is largely consumer driven. And consumers are notoriously fickle. Todays must have cell phone model ramps from zero to millions of handsets back to very modest levels within a six months time frame. The other reality is that with margins so small and capital requirements so large for most seimconductor businesses they cannot afford to err on the side of too much capacity.
Back when PCs were the main drivers and corporate PC buying was at least somewhat predictable companies did have a bit more forward visibility. But in the post PC world where mobile computing is the fastest growth segment that's all history.
I tend to agree with you bltarng. When supplies get tight, customers start double booking. This causes the manufacturers to increase the run rates and build inventory. When things slow back down, all of a sudden there is too much inventory and the mix is always wrong. You just can't win.
What an arrogant ass. You pat yourself on the back for drawing a straight line from July to August to arrive at September, and you excoriate businesses -- naturally reticent in an environment of uncertainty -- for not having all the answers. Sorry to break it to you, but we manufacturers have no magic crystal ball; we can only sell what our customers order and do our best to keep our supply chains aligned with demand. To tell you the truth, we are all scared to death with our customers hemming and hawing and not giving any straight answers to forecast inquiries. We are driving in the fog, and you criticize us for not telling you what curves lie ahead. It is the ANALYSTS' jobs to get the lay of the land, research the various actors in the supply chain, and provide estimates of overall market demand. Don't tell us to do your work for you.
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