Design Con 2015
Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
Cowan LRA Model   11/12/2011 11:31:25 PM
NO RATINGS
ughhhh - you mis-understood my comment!!!! Check out the WSTS website to see what they are all about - namely the role that they play in gathering and reporting worldwide semiconductor sales. It is this data that my model employs in order to generate my monthly forecast estimate updates. Obviously I believe it follows (logically) that the higher the accuracy of the source data (global semi sales as published by the WSTS each month) the potentially higher precision that can accrue in the forecast numbers. If three significant digits PAST the decimal point disturbs you than only use the first three significant digits of my forecast estimate numbers that I provide. If you would like more info re. the Cowan LRA forecast model than please send an e-mail to mikedcowan@verizon.net and I will send you a presentation that gives more insight into the forecast methodology that I employ. Mike C.

ughhhh
User Rank
Rookie
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
ughhhh   11/11/2011 7:49:24 PM
NO RATINGS
Mike C, if everyone reports many decimals does that make it more accurate? I would already be pleased if the estimate turns out to be 5% accurate.

agk
User Rank
Rookie
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
agk   11/8/2011 7:52:01 AM
NO RATINGS
Time fortune wheel of mobile and internet applications are revolving up for good ,planned and quality works.

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
Cowan LRA Model   11/8/2011 4:50:26 AM
NO RATINGS
btarng - you are obviously unaware that the WSTS, in its monthly reporting of global semi sales, employs six (that is, 6) significant digits beyond the decimal point! This can be seen if you were to look at the HBR (Historical Billings Report), namely its Blue Book, that the WSTS posts on its website each month and ia available for all to see! Oh by the way, if you were to carefully look at many semiconductor companies quarterly financial statements you would also see that they report three significant digits beyond the decimal point. Consequently, I likewise report my forecast estimates in the same format, that is, three digits past the decimal point. Therefore, I have to infer that you are being very devious,for whatever purpose, in your comment. Mike C.

byt25
User Rank
Rookie
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
byt25   11/8/2011 2:04:07 AM
NO RATINGS
I love how Mr. Cowan's estimate includes six significant digits -- as if one could accurately predict the annual sales of any single company down to a million dollars, much less the revenues of the entire semiconductor industry. Why don't you include the dollars and cents also? I'm sure the mathematical model spits those out as well.

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
Cowan LRA Model   11/7/2011 7:26:20 PM
NO RATINGS
Peter, remember - the model is strictly a pure mathematically based assessment relying on linear regression analysis operating on the past 27 plus years of historical global semi sales as gathered, tracked and reported by the WSTS. Therefore, the model is devoid of any economic assumptions or biases and thus abstracts its quarterly and yearly sales forecast predictions from the industry's historical experience as embedded in the monthly actual global sales numbers covering the past 27 plus years, that is, from 1984 through 2011 YTD. Mike C.

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
Peter Clarke   11/7/2011 6:58:22 PM
NO RATINGS
Thanks Mike You are on the bullish side of most with that 3 percent growth forecast but you may yet be proved right if some restocking goes on in 4Q11. On the other hand, here in Europe the macro-economic outlook is not good. :/

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: TSMC sees signs of market turning up
Cowan LRA Model   11/7/2011 5:18:44 PM
NO RATINGS
Peter - the just updated Cowan LRA Model run which is based upon September's (actual) global semiconductor sales of $29.442 billion yielded a sales forecast estimate of $307.258 billion. This latest result corresponds to a 2011 sales growth expectation of 3.0 percent which is down from last month's forecast prediction of 3.9 percent even though September's actual sales number was a 5-week month all-time record high value. Interested readers can send an e-mail to mikedcowan@verizon.net requesting the details of the latest model run numbers. Mike C. (independent semi industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA forecast model)



Top Comments of the Week
Flash Poll
Like Us on Facebook

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
<b><a href=Betajet">

The Circle – The Future's Imperfect in the Present Tense
Betajet
1 Comment
The Circle, a satirical, dystopian novel published in 2013 by San Francisco-based writer Dave Eggers, is about a large, very powerful technology company that combines aspects of Google, ...

Max Maxfield

Recommended Reads From the Engineer's Bookshelf
Max Maxfield
2 comments
I'm not sure if I read more than most folks or not, but I do I know that I spend quite a lot of time reading. I hate to be idle, so I always have a book or two somewhere about my person -- ...

Martin Rowe

No 2014 Punkin Chunkin, What Will You Do?
Martin Rowe
2 comments
American Thanksgiving is next week, and while some people watch (American) football all day, the real competition on TV has become Punkin Chunkin. But there will be no Punkin Chunkin on TV ...

Rich Quinnell

Making the Grade in Industrial Design
Rich Quinnell
16 comments
As every developer knows, there are the paper specifications for a product design, and then there are the real requirements. The paper specs are dry, bland, and rigidly numeric, making ...

Special Video Section
The LT8640 is a 42V, 5A synchronous step-down regulator ...
The LTC2000 high-speed DAC has low noise and excellent ...
How do you protect the load and ensure output continues to ...
General-purpose DACs have applications in instrumentation, ...
Linear Technology demonstrates its latest measurement ...
10:29
Demos from Maxim Integrated at Electronica 2014 show ...
Bosch CEO Stefan Finkbeiner shows off latest combo and ...
STMicroelectronics demoed this simple gesture control ...
Keysight shows you what signals lurk in real-time at 510MHz ...
TE Connectivity's clear-plastic, full-size model car shows ...
Why culture makes Linear Tech a winner.
Recently formed Architects of Modern Power consortium ...
Specially modified Corvette C7 Stingray responds to ex Indy ...
Avago’s ACPL-K30T is the first solid-state driver qualified ...
NXP launches its line of multi-gate, multifunction, ...
Doug Bailey, VP of marketing at Power Integrations, gives a ...
See how to ease software bring-up with DesignWare IP ...
DesignWare IP Prototyping Kits enable fast software ...
This video explores the LT3086, a new member of our LDO+ ...
In today’s modern electronic systems, the need for power ...