I agree- companies can come back from bankruptcy leaner, stronger and ready to turn things around. The problem here, as I see it, is there are simply too many players in DRAM. Just as Elpida's bankruptcy could stabilize pricing and lead to higher DRAM sales, if Elpida comes back with guns blazing (and all fabs), the industry will be right back in oversupply, and the same factors that worked against Elpida will work against it (and its competitors) all over again. DRAM is not a business for the faint of heart.
Not sure what "bankruptcy" means at the end of the game. We have seen that in the US auto industry. The companies use this to get a cushion, to slim-down and restructure; people (vendors and customers) will re-gain confidence and the company comes back up. Just can't see another Qimonda here because economy is in a much better shape.
The spot price went up the day of the bankruptcy partly because of shock/panic. People are understandably nervous about buying from Elpida, a supplier with an uncertain future, and looking to secure deals with other suppliers. IHS is projecting further price stabilization after tough decisions are made about Elpida, including reduction of manufacturing assets.
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