"The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fall" by Clayton Christensen discussed the challenge years ago. Successful businesses have a hard time changing as their cash cow business moves to new technologies. Each generation of disk drive came from a different company - for a reason. When Nokia started 147 years ago, they made paper. Later they moved into manufacturing rubber boots and power generation. They've reinvented themselves in the past; it may be time to do so again.
I think the article's perspective is wrong. At the current stock price, the question is not whether Nokia can become dominant again. The question is whether they can become viable. If they can, buying at the right time can easily yield significant returns. Partnering with Microsoft was gutsy, while Android would have been a much safer bet, but I personally think the Microsoft bet will pay off. Here's a few reasons:
1 - The carriers need another system to increase competition and make them less beholden to Apple's demands. They have an incentive to push Windows Phone.
2 - Windows Phone is more simple than Android, and Nokia should be able to deliver cheaper products than Apple, whose cheap products are usually outdated models.
3 - Windows Phone is refreshingly different.
4 - Consumers will become familiar with Metro design through Windows PCs and tablets.
From an investor perspective, at $4/share Nokia is a risky but potentially lucrative bet. As soon as the trend in the stock price changes, I'm buying in.
I think that Nokia should shift users' focus on the protection of privacy. Nokia should strictly control the way of getting personal information, such as an address book, the current IP address, GPS location, etc., from mobile phones by apps developers. Nokia should emphasize on how Nokia protects users' privacy.
Nokia should also setup its own Internet community or channel that acts as a hub for connecting Nokia users to different kinds of communities in the world.
I'm not sure there is much more Nokia can do now, but this predicament could have been avoided. The rapid ascent of iOS and Android smartphones was not completely unpredictable. Not only was Nokia late to the smartphone party, but it wasted precious time and resources on the whole Meego fiasco. Had Nokia jumped on the Android bandwagon early on, it could have at least been a contender among the major Android handset vendors.
Having missed that opportunity, the move to Windows Phone was probably the only option left, and of course this caused even further delays. It is still a huge gamble, whether Windows Phone will gain significant market share or not -- but it is a gamble that Nokia had to make.
Some might say that Nokia caught the RIM disease, or perhaps the other way around. Both suffered from "not invented here" syndrome -- the belief that the homegrown IP that made them so much money in the past couldn't possibly be superseded by a couple of new kids on the block.
A device as complicated as smartphones today is really difficult to be bug-free. Every little things matters - antenna, baseband chip sets, MCU, pcb layout to placement of components. So does the OS. This particular bug can't be fatal if iPhone 4S could have "bars" dropped while the crowds were still queuing up in from of various Apple store to buy it. What struck me the most of the link that Waqar shared is "Software update will fix the bug while this bug is not OS related." Well! As a system engineer, I can see the issue could come from driver or, some other small changes that is customed to Lumia. Regardless, Nokia, at least, quickly acknowledge the issue and actively look for a solution. What did PR of Apple say when iPhone 4S was found having antenna issue?
This is a very informative piece that NOKIA investors should read. I have always believed that tech companies have one life or one and half. You never survive when you are broken like Nokia. It is the same reason that I think RIM is gone. Yes, you can mention Apple. The reason why Apple does not qualify is that Apple bout NeXT and NeXT evolved with Steve Jobs to become the new Apple.
Let no think Elop can do magic with the onslaught from Google. Now Nokia is sending people to Africa. For decades, they relied on partners. But Google showed them how to enter new markets by building local teams and the world will never be the same.
The only hope for NOKIA is if either Android or Apple will have issues. If not, NOKIA is done!
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