Wow, I really hope they do it, because we know the important thing to have in a vital, innovative, growing market is a government driven, design by committee architecture where free ideas are not tolerated.
They should push for open architectures, software and hardware alike. That's the wisest thing to do IMO. This would meet their techonolgy independence goal and ensure the necessary world-wide critical mass (hence lower cost, easier maintenance and more robustness). If they try to push for their own proprietory architectures, they will live to regret it IMO.
Arm has become the dominate CPU in smartphones and tablets. Intel and MIPS have tried very hard to replace ARM in market this and have consistently failed to do so. Why not?
With smartphones, price, speed, size, and power all enter in to the decision process. Even a 10% power difference can be a make-or-break feature for a particular brand of phone.
I'm not the designer of a smartphone, so I don't know what the magic formula is to make Arm the obvious choice. But neither is the Chinese government. Forcing the choice means forcing many phone designers to make suboptimal choices, which means the phones will not be competitive. The same is true for portable and desktop computers.
It is completely obvious to me that this is going to completely flop and a few years from now this program will be as forgotten as the Chinese LongMarch CPU, which was going to replace Intel and AMD processors.
The success or failure of a standard will depend, in part, on the motives. If it is done for protectionism it is likely to fail but if it is done to create a large single market it is likely to succeed.
Many years ago Europe looked to the advantage that the USA had with a single market and set about trying to copy it. The GSM phone standard is a good example of a common standard success story.
If I had to put money on it I would say the Chinese are more likely to succeed than fail.
The reason I believe this is 8 out of 9 Chinese government officials are Engineers.
Compare that to the USA and Europe where the bankers seem to have taken over control.
Like others have said, the Chinese government has done this sort of thing many times before. Including for their own cellular standard and their own DTV standard. Didn't they also develop the CD-V, because it was cheaper than DVD players and DVDs?
I always think about that last example, when I see the (few remaining) DVD players on store shelves going for next to nothing. CD-V is cheaper? I doubt it. May have been for the first couple of years of the DVD, maybe. Was it a smart way to go? I don't know, but I suspect it was rather counterproductive. Did the anyone in the rest of the world adopt their home-grown standards? Not that I know of.
Of course, the population of China is enormous. China and India alone, two countries out of 150+, account for 1 of every 3 people on the planet. So one might expect that they have the talent to pull these things off, no? But it probably depends on how much control the government exerts on the actual design. By which I'm saying, the more government control, the worse off they would end up.
They tried this before and it flopped then, as it will now. Politicians do need a reality filter sometimes, lest they believe their own hype, and trot out this sort of laughable Emperors Clothes.
I guess in China, no one is brave enough to say that.
This is the most efficient government I can say now. A govt planning such a massive endeavor just to keep the country growing? China owns this century because I cannot see any govt that compete with it